Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Piast Gliwice make the trip to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego to face Legia Warszawa in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Legia Warszawa (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Piast Gliwice's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Legia Warszawa, 1.90 for Piast Gliwice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Legia Warszawa 0W, Piast Gliwice 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Piast Gliwice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 46% versus Piast Gliwice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Legia Warszawa 46% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.16 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.127 / defence 1.132 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.968 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.126. Data: 28 Legia Warszawa games / 28 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 37%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 40% | Piast Gliwice 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.16 / Piast Gliwice 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.127 / def 1.132 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.968 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Piast Gliwice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Legia Warszawa 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 34% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Legia Warszawa 0W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Legia Warszawa's attack rating (1.13) and Piast Gliwice's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Piast Gliwice's attack (0.97x) against Legia Warszawa's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
34%
2.95
29%
3.48
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.40
1.23
Piast Gliwice xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
10%
10.13
12%
8.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.23 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 11W 3D 14L from 28 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five.
Piast Gliwice, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 9L across 28 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Legia Warszawa against 1.46 for Piast Gliwice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 8W 0D 6L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Piast Gliwice's away record stands at 5W 5D 4L across 14 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.29 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
Piast Gliwice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 11W 3D 14L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 11W 8D 9L in their last 28 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.71 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Piast Gliwice have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Piast Gliwice won 4-1 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Legia Warszawa have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Piast Gliwice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
6
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Piast Gliwice have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Legia Warszawa 0-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 43%, Piast Gliwice 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Legia Warszawa) and 29% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 36%; Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 29% of games; Piast Gliwice in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 36% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 29% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Legia Warszawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Legia Warszawa 0-1 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.16 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.23 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.13 / defence 1.13 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 34% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 37%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 46%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Legia Warszawa 1.29 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.