Legia Warszawa 1-0 Korona Kielce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Korona Kielce at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 20 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Legia Warszawa stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Legia Warszawa at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Korona Kielce have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Korona Kielce's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Legia Warszawa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Legia Warszawa's games and 80% of Korona Kielce's (from Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Legia Warszawa have won 1, Korona Kielce 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2023, ended Legia Warszawa 3–2 Korona Kielce — a Legia Warszawa win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Korona Kielce trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 51% versus Korona Kielce 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Korona Kielce 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 2.12 xG and Korona Kielce 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.371 / defence 0.869 | Korona Kielce attack 1.073 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 0.940. Legia Warszawa carry an above-average attack rating of 1.371 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 37 games and Korona Kielce's last 37.
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 66% | Draw 20% | Korona Kielce 14%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 1.51 | Draw 5.11 | Korona Kielce 6.95. The model has a clear lean to Legia Warszawa (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Korona Kielce's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Korona Kielce 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 66% | Draw 20% | Korona Kielce 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Legia Warszawa 2.12 / Korona Kielce 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.371 / def 0.869 | Korona Kielce attack 1.073 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.428 / away 0.940 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Korona Kielce xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce FAQs
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Korona Kielce.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 5) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 66% chance of winning, Korona Kielce a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Korona Kielce's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Korona Kielce's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Legia Warszawa's last 37 games and Korona Kielce's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
66%
1.51
20%
5.11
14%
6.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
3.00
0.88
Korona Kielce xG
1.51
66%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
6.95
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
28%
3.64
2%
58.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 0.88 for Korona Kielce, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 21W 10D 6L from 37 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Korona Kielce, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 17L across 37 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 13W 5D 0L from their last 18 home games — 2.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Legia Warszawa are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Korona Kielce's away record stands at 3W 5D 10L across their last 18 away games, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Korona Kielce are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
Legia Warszawa (Home) vs Korona Kielce (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Legia Warszawa
Early Season
Korona Kielce
Early Season
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Form FAQs
What form are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 21W 10D 6L in their last 37 games (1.97 PPG), while Korona Kielce have gone 11W 9D 17L in their last 37 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Korona Kielce away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.44 PPG; Korona Kielce away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Korona Kielce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Korona Kielce in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from July 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 8 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Korona Kielce specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
4
Draws
1
Korona Kielce
Recent Meetings
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Korona Kielce have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 August 2026: Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 61%, Korona Kielce 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Legia Warszawa and 56% for Korona Kielce. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Korona Kielce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Legia Warszawa vs Korona Kielce Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Korona Kielce's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 56% of Korona Kielce's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Korona Kielce matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Legia Warszawa's recent matches and 78% of Korona Kielce's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Legia Warszawa edge out Korona Kielce 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Korona Kielce 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 5, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 2.12 xG and Korona Kielce 0.88 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Korona Kielce landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.37 / defence 0.87 against Korona Kielce attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 66% | Draw 20% | Korona Kielce 14%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Korona Kielce 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Korona Kielce's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.