Legia Warszawa 1-0 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Legia Warszawa host Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 2W 0D 4L from 6 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jagiellonia — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Legia Warszawa trading profile (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Jagiellonia trading profile (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 54% and Jagiellonia 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 54% | Jagiellonia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG and Jagiellonia 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.823 / defence 1.475 | Jagiellonia attack 0.848 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.197. Jagiellonia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Legia Warszawa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Legia Warszawa games / 15 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 40%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Jagiellonia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Legia Warszawa 50% | Jagiellonia 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.40 / Jagiellonia 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 0.823 / def 1.475 | Jagiellonia attack 0.848 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jagiellonia xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa 1 - 0 Jagiellonia.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 35% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Legia Warszawa's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Jagiellonia's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.90
1.50
Jagiellonia xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
8%
12.67
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.50 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Legia Warszawa's recent record stands at 3W 0D 10L from 13 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 4L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jagiellonia by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Legia Warszawa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Legia Warszawa have managed 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jagiellonia's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
The Goals Picture
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.31 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 69%.
Last 13 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 0D 10L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Jagiellonia away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 1.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2023, when Legia Warszawa won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Jagiellonia specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Legia Warszawa
5
Draws
2
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Jagiellonia have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 2-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 50%, Jagiellonia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Legia Warszawa) and 67% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Legia Warszawa's games and 67% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Legia Warszawa's matches and 67% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Legia Warszawa and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Jagiellonia 1-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.40 xG and Jagiellonia 1.50 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jagiellonia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 0.82 / defence 1.48 against Jagiellonia attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 35% | Draw 25% | Jagiellonia 40%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Legia Warszawa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 54%, Jagiellonia 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Legia Warszawa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.