Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Legia Warszawa take on Cracovia Krakow.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Wojska Polskiego in Ekstraklasa (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 8 March 2026 at 19:15 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Legia Warszawa have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Cracovia Krakow — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Cracovia Krakow away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 0.80 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Legia Warszawa have won 3, Cracovia Krakow 4, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Legia Warszawa 1–2 Cracovia Krakow — a Cracovia Krakow win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Legia Warszawa 65% and Cracovia Krakow 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 53% | Cracovia Krakow 54%). Note also that Cracovia Krakow surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Legia Warszawa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 0.98 xG and Cracovia Krakow 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 0.921 / defence 1.028 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.820 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.151. Cracovia Krakow bring a tight defence (rating 0.740, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Legia Warszawa's projected output down. Data: built from Legia Warszawa's last 57 games and Cracovia Krakow's last 57.

Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 33% | Draw 34% | Cracovia Krakow 32%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 3.02 | Draw 2.91 | Cracovia Krakow 3.08. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Legia Warszawa's last 10 home games and Cracovia Krakow's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Legia Warszawa 60% (last 10 home games) | Cracovia Krakow 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights