Legia Warszawa 2-0 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 19 as Legia Warszawa welcome Cracovia Krakow to Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 December 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Legia Warszawa have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Legia Warszawa are significantly better at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego than their overall form suggests.
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Legia Warszawa at 1.20 PPG versus Cracovia Krakow's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Legia Warszawa, 2 for Cracovia Krakow and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Legia Warszawa in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Legia Warszawa 53% versus Cracovia Krakow 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Legia Warszawa 55% | Cracovia Krakow 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Legia Warszawa attack 1.054 / defence 1.000 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.852 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.252. Data: 51 Legia Warszawa games / 51 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 29%. Fair-value odds: Legia Warszawa 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Legia Warszawa 60% | Cracovia Krakow 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Legia Warszawa 1.27 / Cracovia Krakow 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Legia Warszawa attack 1.054 / def 1.000 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.852 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Legia Warszawa 2 - 0 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Legia Warszawa a 39% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (4 meetings): Legia Warszawa 1W | Draws 1 | Cracovia Krakow 2W.
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in?
Legia Warszawa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Legia Warszawa's attack at 1.05x the league average against Cracovia Krakow's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cracovia Krakow's attack versus Legia Warszawa's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.21
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Legia Warszawa xG
Total xG
2.34
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
8%
12.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Legia Warszawa and 1.07 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Legia Warszawa have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 27W 14D 10L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow's form line: 15W 19D 17L from 51 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Legia Warszawa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cracovia Krakow.
Venue Form
On home soil, Legia Warszawa have posted 2.20 PPG from 25 outings (16W 7D 2L).
On the road, Cracovia Krakow have gone 6W 9D 10L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Legia Warszawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Legia Warszawa are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Legia Warszawa
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Legia Warszawa have gone 27W 14D 10L in their last 51 games (1.86 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 15W 19D 17L in their last 51 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Legia Warszawa at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Legia Warszawa's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Legia Warszawa at home: 2.20 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Legia Warszawa or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Legia Warszawa have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2022, when Legia Warszawa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Legia Warszawa's record when hosting Cracovia Krakow specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Legia Warszawa
1
Draws
5
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
From 10 meetings on record, Legia Warszawa have won 4, Cracovia Krakow have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Legia Warszawa 1-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Legia Warszawa 64%, Cracovia Krakow 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Legia Warszawa) and 32% (Cracovia Krakow).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cracovia Krakow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Legia Warszawa home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Legia Warszawa play Cracovia Krakow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Legia Warszawa's games and 48% of Cracovia Krakow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Legia Warszawa vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Legia Warszawa's recent games and 32% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Legia Warszawa and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Legia Warszawa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cracovia Krakow.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Cracovia Krakow 2-0 at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Legia Warszawa 1.27 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cracovia Krakow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Legia Warszawa attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.85 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Legia Warszawa 39% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 29%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Legia Warszawa 55%, Cracovia Krakow 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.