Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec meet at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 May 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lechia Gdansk's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Stal Mielec have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Stal Mielec have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Lechia Gdansk's favour (1.70 vs 0.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 0 for Stal Mielec and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 48% versus Stal Mielec 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 42% | Stal Mielec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.78 xG and Stal Mielec 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.179 / defence 0.754 | Stal Mielec attack 0.736 / defence 1.445. League average goals — home 1.043 / away 1.249. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.445 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Lechia Gdansk's defence rating of 0.754 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Lechia Gdansk games / 31 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 63% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 13%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Stal Mielec 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Lechia Gdansk (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lechia Gdansk are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Stal Mielec 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 63% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 42% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.78 / Stal Mielec 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.179 / def 0.754 | Stal Mielec attack 0.736 / def 1.445 | league avg home 1.043 / away 1.249 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Stal Mielec xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk 3 - 2 Stal Mielec.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 63% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 1 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (1.18) and Stal Mielec's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stal Mielec's attack (0.74x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 0.69.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
63%
1.60
24%
4.16
13%
7.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.47
0.69
Stal Mielec xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
7.50
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
31%
3.19
2%
44.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 0.69 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 31 games, going 15W 8D 8L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Stal Mielec sit at 1.16 PPG from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Lechia Gdansk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 11W 3D 1L across 15 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stal Mielec have taken 0.80 points per game from 15 outings (2W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.16 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stal Mielec in 61%.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Stal Mielec
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 15W 8D 8L in their last 31 games (1.71 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 9W 9D 13L in their last 31 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Stal Mielec away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.40 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Stal Mielec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Stal Mielec in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stal Mielec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
2
Draws
1
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
From 6 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 47%, Stal Mielec 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lechia Gdansk) and 47% (Stal Mielec).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 73% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 47% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Stal Mielec 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Stal Mielec 3-2 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.78 xG and Stal Mielec 0.69 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.18 / defence 0.75 against Stal Mielec attack 0.74 / defence 1.45, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 63% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 13%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 42%, Stal Mielec 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lechia Gdansk arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.