Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Legia Warszawa make the trip to Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk to face Lechia Gdansk in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lechia Gdansk (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Legia Warszawa have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Legia Warszawa's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Legia Warszawa are 1.50 PPG clear of Lechia Gdansk in recent Ekstraklasa fixtures (2.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lechia Gdansk, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Lechia Gdansk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Legia Warszawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 44% versus Legia Warszawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 52% | Legia Warszawa 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 0.99 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.821 / defence 1.170 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.051 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.049. Data: 66 Lechia Gdansk games / 66 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 42%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Legia Warszawa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Legia Warszawa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Lechia Gdansk 50% | Legia Warszawa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk • Kick-off: Saturday 20 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Lechia Gdansk 0.99 / Legia Warszawa 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 0.821 / def 1.170 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.051 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Legia Warszawa xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 20 May 2023 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 27% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lechia Gdansk's attack rating (0.82) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Legia Warszawa's attack (1.05x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
27%
3.65
30%
3.31
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.28
1.29
Legia Warszawa xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.15
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 13.2 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.29 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk come into this having played 66 games, going 23W 15D 28L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Legia Warszawa sit at 1.61 PPG from 66 outings (31W 13D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Lechia Gdansk against 1.61 for Legia Warszawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Lechia Gdansk's home form reads 16W 8D 9L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Legia Warszawa have taken 1.15 points per game from 33 outings (10W 8D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.52 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
Legia Warszawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 23W 15D 28L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 31W 13D 22L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 1.70 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Legia Warszawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lechia Gdansk
1
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 2, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lechia Gdansk 42%, Legia Warszawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lechia Gdansk) and 48% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Legia Warszawa in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Lechia Gdansk's recent matches and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lechia Gdansk's recent games and 48% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lechia Gdansk defy the odds to beat Legia Warszawa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Legia Warszawa 1-0 at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Regular Season - 33, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 0.99 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.29 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Legia Warszawa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 0.82 / defence 1.17 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.05 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 27% | Draw 30% | Legia Warszawa 42%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lechia Gdansk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 52%, Legia Warszawa 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lechia Gdansk 1.27 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.