Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Lech Poznan – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lechia Gdansk at 46%, yet in-form Lech Poznan provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Energa Gdańsk plays host to Lechia Gdansk versus Lech Poznan in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 20 February 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lechia Gdansk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Lechia Gdansk have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Lechia Gdansk are significantly better at Stadion Energa Gdańsk than their overall form suggests.
Lech Poznan's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lech Poznan arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Lechia Gdansk have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lech Poznan in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Lechia Gdansk 0W, Lech Poznan 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lechia Gdansk half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lech Poznan half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lechia Gdansk 52% versus Lech Poznan 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lechia Gdansk 48% | Lech Poznan 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lechia Gdansk 1.65 xG and Lech Poznan 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.116 / defence 0.997 | Lech Poznan attack 1.071 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.179. Lech Poznan bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Lechia Gdansk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Lechia Gdansk games / 21 Lech Poznan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 29%. Fair-value odds: Lechia Gdansk 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Lech Poznan 3.45. Lechia Gdansk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lechia Gdansk as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lech Poznan (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lechia Gdansk 60% | Lech Poznan 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Energa Gdańsk • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Lechia Gdansk 1.65 / Lech Poznan 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lechia Gdansk attack 1.116 / def 0.997 | Lech Poznan attack 1.071 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Lechia Gdansk xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lech Poznan xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan kick off?
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What was the final score in Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Lechia Gdansk 1 - 0 Lech Poznan.
Where is Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Energa Gdańsk.
What competition is Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan part of?
Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our statistical model gives Lechia Gdansk a 46% chance of winning, Lech Poznan a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan will score (BTTS).
Will Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan?
Record (1 meetings): Lechia Gdansk 0W | Draws 0 | Lech Poznan 1W.
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan in?
Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lechia Gdansk's attack at 1.12x the league average against Lech Poznan's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lech Poznan's attack (1.07x) against Lechia Gdansk's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
46%
2.16
25%
3.99
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Lechia Gdansk xG
Total xG
2.91
1.26
Lech Poznan xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
5%
18.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Lechia Gdansk and 1.26 for Lech Poznan, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lechia Gdansk's recent record stands at 10W 6D 5L from 21 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lech Poznan, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 2L across 21 games — 2.14 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lech Poznan by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lechia Gdansk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lechia Gdansk have managed 7W 2D 1L from 10 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Lechia Gdansk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Lech Poznan's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lech Poznan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lechia Gdansk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lechia Gdansk are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lech Poznan are on 2.14 scored and 0.76 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
Lech Poznan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan in coming into this match?
Lechia Gdansk have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 games (1.71 PPG), while Lech Poznan have gone 13W 6D 2L in their last 21 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lechia Gdansk at home or Lech Poznan away?
Lechia Gdansk's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lechia Gdansk at home: 2.30 PPG; Lech Poznan away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lechia Gdansk or Lech Poznan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lechia Gdansk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Lech Poznan in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lech Poznan won 5-0 on 3 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lechia Gdansk have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lech Poznan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Lechia Gdansk
0
Draws
5
Lech Poznan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan?
From 8 meetings on record, Lechia Gdansk have won 3, Lech Poznan have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Lech Poznan 1-3 Lechia Gdansk.
Who has won more matches between Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Lechia Gdansk, 70% for Lech Poznan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Lechia Gdansk and 60% for Lech Poznan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lechia Gdansk home games / Lech Poznan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lechia Gdansk play Lech Poznan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lechia Gdansk's games and 70% of Lech Poznan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lechia Gdansk vs Lech Poznan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Lechia Gdansk's matches and 60% of Lech Poznan's.
Do Lechia Gdansk and Lech Poznan tend to score early?
Lechia Gdansk have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Lech Poznan in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lechia Gdansk edge out Lech Poznan 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Lech Poznan 1-0 at Stadion Energa Gdańsk, Regular Season - 22, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lechia Gdansk 1.65 xG and Lech Poznan 1.26 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lech Poznan landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lechia Gdansk attack 1.12 / defence 1.00 against Lech Poznan attack 1.07 / defence 1.30, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lechia Gdansk 46% | Draw 25% | Lech Poznan 29%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lechia Gdansk 48%, Lech Poznan 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lech Poznan's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.71. Form was overturned, with Lechia Gdansk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.