Lech Poznan 1-3 Widzew Łódź – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lech Poznan at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Widzew Łódź travel to Enea Stadion to take on Lech Poznan. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Lech Poznan have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lech Poznan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lech Poznan's home record at Enea Stadion: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Lech Poznan are significantly better at Enea Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Widzew Łódź — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Widzew Łódź, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lech Poznan carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lech Poznan register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Widzew Łódź in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Lech Poznan, 0 for Widzew Łódź and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Lech Poznan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lech Poznan in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Widzew Łódź in-play tendencies (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lech Poznan 51% versus Widzew Łódź 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lech Poznan 49% | Widzew Łódź 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lech Poznan attack 1.366 / defence 0.937 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.014 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.172. Lech Poznan carry an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 49 Lech Poznan games / 49 Widzew Łódź games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 18%. Fair-value odds: Lech Poznan 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Widzew Łódź 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lech Poznan (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.03 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lech Poznan are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Lech Poznan 60% | Widzew Łódź 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Enea Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Lech Poznan 2.03 / Widzew Łódź 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Lech Poznan attack 1.366 / def 0.937 | Widzew Łódź attack 1.014 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Lech Poznan (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Lech Poznan xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź kick off?
Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Enea Stadion.
What was the final score in Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź?
Lech Poznan 1 - 3 Widzew Łódź.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź being played?
The match is being played at Enea Stadion.
What competition is Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź part of?
Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź?
Our statistical model gives Lech Poznan a 57% chance of winning, Widzew Łódź a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lech Poznan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź will score (BTTS).
Will Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź?
Record (2 meetings): Lech Poznan 2W | Draws 0 | Widzew Łódź 0W.
What form are Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź in?
Lech Poznan (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Widzew Łódź (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lech Poznan's attack at 1.37x the league average against Widzew Łódź's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Widzew Łódź's attack versus Lech Poznan's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lech Poznan Win
57%
1.77
25%
3.97
18%
5.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Lech Poznan xG
Total xG
3.14
1.11
Widzew Łódź xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.47
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
2%
41.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Lech Poznan and 1.11 for Widzew Łódź, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Lech Poznan have picked up 1.84 PPG on a 25W 15D 9L record — W-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lech Poznan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Widzew Łódź's form line: 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W. The sample for Widzew Łódź is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lech Poznan are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Widzew Łódź.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lech Poznan have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Widzew Łódź have gone 6W 9D 10L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lech Poznan come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lech Poznan are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Widzew Łódź are on 1.14 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lech Poznan
Blended
Widzew Łódź
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź in coming into this match?
Lech Poznan have gone 25W 15D 9L in their last 49 games (1.84 PPG), while Widzew Łódź have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lech Poznan at home or Widzew Łódź away?
Lech Poznan's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lech Poznan at home: 1.96 PPG; Widzew Łódź away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Lech Poznan or Widzew Łódź been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lech Poznan have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Widzew Łódź in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jan 2025, when Lech Poznan won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lech Poznan's record when hosting Widzew Łódź specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lech Poznan
1
Draws
3
Widzew Łódź
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź?
From 8 meetings on record, Lech Poznan have won 4, Widzew Łódź have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Widzew Łódź 2-1 Lech Poznan.
Who has won more matches between Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź?
Lech Poznan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lech Poznan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Widzew Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lech Poznan 44%, Widzew Łódź 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lech Poznan) and 40% (Widzew Łódź).
On the defensive side: Lech Poznan keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lech Poznan home games / Widzew Łódź away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lech Poznan play Widzew Łódź?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Lech Poznan's recent matches and 56% of Widzew Łódź's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lech Poznan vs Widzew Łódź usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lech Poznan's recent games and 40% of Widzew Łódź's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lech Poznan and Widzew Łódź tend to score early?
Lech Poznan have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Widzew Łódź in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Widzew Łódź cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lech Poznan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Widzew Łódź beat Lech Poznan 1-3 at Enea Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lech Poznan 2.03 xG and Widzew Łódź 1.11 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lech Poznan fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Widzew Łódź outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lech Poznan attack 1.37 / defence 0.94 against Widzew Łódź attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lech Poznan 57% | Draw 25% | Widzew Łódź 18%, with Lech Poznan to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Widzew Łódź win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lech Poznan 49%, Widzew Łódź 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lech Poznan's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Widzew Łódź's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lech Poznan arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Widzew Łódź winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lech Poznan (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Widzew Łódź (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.