ŁKS Łódź 2-2 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ŁKS Łódź at 37%, yet in-form Jagiellonia provide a compelling counter-argument — this ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia meet at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz in Ekstraklasa (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Current Form
ŁKS Łódź's record over their last 8 games: 2W 0D 6L (0.75 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings (12%). Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
ŁKS Łódź at home: 2W 0D 1L from their last 3 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — ŁKS Łódź are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jagiellonia's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Jagiellonia arrive in superior form — a 0.85 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.75) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
ŁKS Łódź goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games, 3 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 8 games, 3 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ŁKS Łódź 25% versus Jagiellonia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ŁKS Łódź 38% | Jagiellonia 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ŁKS Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.789 / defence 1.140 | Jagiellonia attack 0.972 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 0.933. ŁKS Łódź's attack rating of 0.789 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. Data: built from ŁKS Łódź's last 8 games and Jagiellonia's last 41.
Result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 30%. Fair-value odds: ŁKS Łódź 2.68 | Draw 3.04 | Jagiellonia 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, ŁKS Łódź are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on ŁKS Łódź if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: ŁKS Łódź 33% (last 3 home games) | Jagiellonia 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz • Kick-off: Friday 22 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG ŁKS Łódź 1.19 / Jagiellonia 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: ŁKS Łódź attack 0.789 / def 1.140 | Jagiellonia attack 0.972 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.376 / away 0.933 • Poisson stance: ŁKS Łódź (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
ŁKS Łódź xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia FAQs
What time does ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia kick off?
ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What was the final score in ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
ŁKS Łódź 2 - 2 Jagiellonia.
Where is ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz.
What competition is ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia part of?
ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 9) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives ŁKS Łódź a 37% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making ŁKS Łódź the favourite.
Will both teams score in ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
ŁKS Łódź's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (0.97x) against ŁKS Łódź's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from ŁKS Łódź's last 8 games and Jagiellonia's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ŁKS Łódź Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.04
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
ŁKS Łódź xG
Total xG
2.22
1.03
Jagiellonia xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for ŁKS Łódź and 1.03 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, ŁKS Łódź have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 2W 0D 6L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Jagiellonia's form line: 5W 0D 3L from 8 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Jagiellonia are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against ŁKS Łódź.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, ŁKS Łódź have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 3 home games (2W 0D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — ŁKS Łódź are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 1W 0D 2L from their last 3 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ŁKS Łódź come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ŁKS Łódź are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.88 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ŁKS Łódź have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Jagiellonia in 62%.
Last 8 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Early Season
ŁKS Łódź (Home) vs Jagiellonia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
ŁKS Łódź
Blended
Jagiellonia
Early Season
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia Form FAQs
What form are ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
ŁKS Łódź have gone 2W 0D 6L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 5W 0D 3L in their last 8 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ŁKS Łódź at home or Jagiellonia away?
ŁKS Łódź's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ŁKS Łódź at home: 2.00 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
ŁKS Łódź
1
Draws
1
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, ŁKS Łódź have won 0, Jagiellonia have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Jagiellonia 6-0 ŁKS Łódź.
Who has won more matches between ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ŁKS Łódź are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (ŁKS Łódź) and 33% (Jagiellonia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (ŁKS Łódź) and 67% (Jagiellonia).
On the defensive side: ŁKS Łódź keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Jagiellonia in 33%; ŁKS Łódź have failed to score in 33% of games; Jagiellonia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ŁKS Łódź home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ ŁKS Łódź vs Jagiellonia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Jagiellonia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of ŁKS Łódź's recent games and 67% of Jagiellonia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of ŁKS Łódź's recent matches and 33% of Jagiellonia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ŁKS Łódź and Jagiellonia finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Miejski LKS Lodz, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ŁKS Łódź 1.19 xG and Jagiellonia 1.03 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. ŁKS Łódź beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jagiellonia outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ŁKS Łódź attack 0.79 / defence 1.14 against Jagiellonia attack 0.97 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ŁKS Łódź 37% | Draw 33% | Jagiellonia 30%, with ŁKS Łódź to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ŁKS Łódź 38%, Jagiellonia 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ŁKS Łódź's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jagiellonia arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ŁKS Łódź (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.