Korona Kielce 2-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Radomiak Radom make the trip to Suzuki Arena to face Korona Kielce in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Korona Kielce have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Suzuki Arena, Korona Kielce have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Radomiak Radom's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.50 for Radomiak Radom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Korona Kielce, 0 for Radomiak Radom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Korona Kielce winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 61% versus Radomiak Radom 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Korona Kielce 44% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 0.78 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.797 / defence 0.943 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.000 / defence 0.782. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.103. Korona Kielce's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Radomiak Radom's defence strength of 0.782 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Korona Kielce games / 57 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 27% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 41%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Korona Kielce's lower xG of 0.78 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Korona Kielce 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 27% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 35% | xG Korona Kielce 0.78 / Radomiak Radom 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.797 / def 0.943 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.000 / def 0.782 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce 2 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 27% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Record (1 meetings): Korona Kielce 1W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 0W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.80) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Radomiak Radom's attack (1.00x) against Korona Kielce's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
27%
3.71
32%
3.10
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
1.82
1.04
Radomiak Radom xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.85
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.49
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 8.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.04 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Korona Kielce come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 5D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (9W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Korona Kielce against 1.39 for Radomiak Radom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Korona Kielce's home form reads 4W 2D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.64 points per game from 11 outings (5W 3D 3L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.09 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 6W 5D 12L in their last 23 games (1.00 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Radomiak Radom's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 1.27 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Radomiak Radom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Radomiak Radom in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Korona Kielce have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Korona Kielce won 4-0 on 19 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Radomiak Radom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Korona Kielce
1
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 5, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Radomiak Radom 0-2 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom?
Korona Kielce have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Radomiak Radom see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 54%, Radomiak Radom 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Korona Kielce) and 46% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Korona Kielce have failed to score in 27% of games; Radomiak Radom in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 46% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Radomiak Radom 2-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 0.78 xG and Radomiak Radom 1.04 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.00 / defence 0.78, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 27% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 41%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Korona Kielce win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Korona Kielce 1.00 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Korona Kielce win broke the near-deadlock. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.