Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Legia Warszawa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Legia Warszawa travel to Suzuki Arena to take on Korona Kielce. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Legia Warszawa haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Legia Warszawa have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.004 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.162. Data: 0 Korona Kielce games / 34 Legia Warszawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 33% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 39%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Legia Warszawa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 33% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Korona Kielce 1.23 / Legia Warszawa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.004 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Legia Warszawa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Korona Kielce 1 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 33% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Korona Kielce's attack rating (0.85) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Korona Kielce's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
33%
2.99
28%
3.57
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.58
1.34
Legia Warszawa xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.34 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Pre-Season
Legia Warszawa
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Korona Kielce's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
4
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
From 9 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Legia Warszawa have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Korona Kielce 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 1, as Korona Kielce and Legia Warszawa drew 1-1 in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 1.23 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 33% | Draw 28% | Legia Warszawa 39%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.