Korona Kielce 2-1 Cracovia Krakow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cracovia Krakow at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow meet at Suzuki Arena in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 6 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Korona Kielce's overall Ekstraklasa record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Korona Kielce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Korona Kielce's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 games at Suzuki Arena this term (0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cracovia Krakow have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cracovia Krakow arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Korona Kielce, 1 for Cracovia Krakow and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jul 2022, ended 0–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Korona Kielce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cracovia Krakow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Korona Kielce 61% versus Cracovia Krakow 17%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Korona Kielce 44% | Cracovia Krakow 11%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Korona Kielce 0.83 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Korona Kielce attack 0.754 / defence 1.158 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.906 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.206. Korona Kielce's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Korona Kielce games / 52 Cracovia Krakow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Korona Kielce 23% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 45%. Fair-value odds: Korona Kielce 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Cracovia Krakow 2.22. Cracovia Krakow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cracovia Krakow at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cracovia Krakow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Korona Kielce 62% | Cracovia Krakow 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Suzuki Arena • Kick-off: Monday 6 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Korona Kielce 23% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Korona Kielce 0.83 / Cracovia Krakow 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Korona Kielce attack 0.754 / def 1.158 | Cracovia Krakow attack 0.906 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Cracovia Krakow (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Korona Kielce xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cracovia Krakow xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow kick off?
Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 6 February 2023 at Suzuki Arena.
What was the final score in Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Korona Kielce 2 - 1 Cracovia Krakow.
Where is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow being played?
The match is being played at Suzuki Arena.
What competition is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow part of?
Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our statistical model gives Korona Kielce a 23% chance of winning, Cracovia Krakow a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cracovia Krakow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow will score (BTTS).
Will Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
Record (1 meetings): Korona Kielce 0W | Draws 0 | Cracovia Krakow 1W.
What form are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow in?
Korona Kielce (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Korona Kielce's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cracovia Krakow's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.83. Flip it around — Cracovia Krakow's attack (0.91x) against Korona Kielce's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 18/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cracovia Krakow Win
23%
4.27
31%
3.22
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Korona Kielce xG
Total xG
2.10
1.27
Cracovia Krakow xG
4.27
23%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
7%
15.14
20%
5.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Korona Kielce and 1.27 for Cracovia Krakow, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Korona Kielce's recent record stands at 3W 4D 11L from 18 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Korona Kielce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cracovia Krakow, meanwhile, have gone 8W 4D 6L across 18 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cracovia Krakow by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Korona Kielce heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Korona Kielce have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cracovia Krakow's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cracovia Krakow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Korona Kielce are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Cracovia Krakow are on 1.11 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Korona Kielce have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Cracovia Krakow in 17%.
Defensively: Cracovia Krakow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Korona Kielce
Blended
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow in coming into this match?
Korona Kielce have gone 3W 4D 11L in their last 18 games (0.72 PPG), while Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 4D 6L in their last 18 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Korona Kielce at home or Cracovia Krakow away?
Cracovia Krakow's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Korona Kielce at home: 0.62 PPG; Cracovia Krakow away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Korona Kielce or Cracovia Krakow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Korona Kielce have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Cracovia Krakow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Korona Kielce have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cracovia Krakow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Korona Kielce
4
Draws
3
Cracovia Krakow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
From 8 meetings on record, Korona Kielce have won 1, Cracovia Krakow have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 1-1 Korona Kielce.
Who has won more matches between Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow?
Cracovia Krakow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Korona Kielce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Korona Kielce 62%, Cracovia Krakow 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Korona Kielce and 0% for Cracovia Krakow.
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow in 38%; Korona Kielce have failed to score in 38% of games; Cracovia Krakow in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Korona Kielce home games / Cracovia Krakow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Korona Kielce play Cracovia Krakow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Korona Kielce's recent matches and 25% of Cracovia Krakow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Korona Kielce vs Cracovia Krakow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Korona Kielce's recent games and 0% of Cracovia Krakow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Korona Kielce and Cracovia Krakow tend to score early?
Korona Kielce have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cracovia Krakow in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Korona Kielce defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Korona Kielce beat Cracovia Krakow 2-1 at Suzuki Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Korona Kielce 0.83 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.27 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Korona Kielce beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Korona Kielce attack 0.75 / defence 1.16 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Korona Kielce 23% | Draw 31% | Cracovia Krakow 45%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Korona Kielce win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Korona Kielce 44%, Cracovia Krakow 11%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Korona Kielce's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cracovia Krakow arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Korona Kielce winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Korona Kielce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.