Jagiellonia 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Jagiellonia have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Zaglebie Lubin stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Jagiellonia's games and 60% of Zaglebie Lubin's (from Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for Zaglebie Lubin and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Jagiellonia 2–2 Zaglebie Lubin — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jagiellonia in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 70% versus Zaglebie Lubin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Zaglebie Lubin 43%). Note also that Zaglebie Lubin surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Jagiellonia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 64% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 2.23 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.395 / defence 0.946 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.125 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.127. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.395 — their 2.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Jagiellonia's last 44 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 45.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.69 | Draw 4.47 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.46. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.23 / 1.20) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jagiellonia's last 10 home games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jagiellonia 80% (last 10 home games) | Zaglebie Lubin 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Jagiellonia 2.23 / Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.395 / def 0.946 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.125 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin FAQs
What time does Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia 3 - 0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 12) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 59% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 1.40x the league average against Zaglebie Lubin's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jagiellonia's last 44 games and Zaglebie Lubin's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.47
18%
5.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.43
1.20
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
5.46
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
11%
9.29
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
2%
50.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.20 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 15D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Zaglebie Lubin sit at 1.45 PPG from 44 outings (18W 10D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.43 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jagiellonia's home form reads 13W 4D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Jagiellonia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zaglebie Lubin have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 22 away games (10W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.11 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Jagiellonia (Home) vs Zaglebie Lubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jagiellonia
Blended
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
❓ Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Form FAQs
What form are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 16W 15D 13L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 10D 16L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.95 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Oct 2023, when Jagiellonia won Jagiellonia 3-0 Zaglebie Lubin.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
2
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jagiellonia have won 5, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 83% of those situations.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 73%, Zaglebie Lubin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jagiellonia and 59% for Zaglebie Lubin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jagiellonia vs Zaglebie Lubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Jagiellonia's games and 46% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jagiellonia's matches and 59% of Zaglebie Lubin's.
Do Jagiellonia and Zaglebie Lubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 73% of Zaglebie Lubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Zaglebie Lubin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Zaglebie Lubin 3-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 12, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 2.23 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 1.20 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Zaglebie Lubin landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.40 / defence 0.95 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 1.12 / defence 1.09, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 59% | Draw 22% | Zaglebie Lubin 18%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Zaglebie Lubin 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.43 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.