Jagiellonia 4-0 Stal Mielec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jagiellonia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jagiellonia host Stal Mielec at Stadion Miejski in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 12 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia at Stadion Miejski this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stal Mielec — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jagiellonia 1.30 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jagiellonia, 0 for Stal Mielec and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stal Mielec in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 64% and Stal Mielec 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 52% | Stal Mielec 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.65 xG and Stal Mielec 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.962 / defence 1.105 | Stal Mielec attack 1.143 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.170. Stal Mielec bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Jagiellonia games / 42 Stal Mielec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 34%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Stal Mielec 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jagiellonia are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Stal Mielec 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Monday 12 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Jagiellonia 1.65 / Stal Mielec 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.962 / def 1.105 | Stal Mielec attack 1.143 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Stal Mielec xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 12 September 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia 4 - 0 Stal Mielec.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec part of?
Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 42% chance of winning, Stal Mielec a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 2 | Stal Mielec 0W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Stal Mielec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jagiellonia's attack at 0.96x the league average against Stal Mielec's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stal Mielec's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.23
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.13
1.48
Stal Mielec xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
10%
10.46
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.48 for Stal Mielec, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 11W 16D 15L from 42 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stal Mielec, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 18L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.17 PPG, Stal Mielec on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stal Mielec's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jagiellonia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Stal Mielec are on 1.21 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Stal Mielec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 11W 16D 15L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while Stal Mielec have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Stal Mielec away?
Jagiellonia's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.38 PPG; Stal Mielec away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2022, when Jagiellonia won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Stal Mielec specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Jagiellonia
3
Draws
2
Stal Mielec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
From 8 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 3, Stal Mielec have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Stal Mielec 2-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jagiellonia at 67%, Stal Mielec at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Jagiellonia) and 57% (Stal Mielec).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Stal Mielec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Stal Mielec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Jagiellonia's games and 67% of Stal Mielec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Stal Mielec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 57% of Stal Mielec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Stal Mielec tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stal Mielec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jagiellonia run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Stal Mielec.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Stal Mielec 4-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 9, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.65 xG and Stal Mielec 1.48 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stal Mielec landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Stal Mielec attack 1.14 / defence 1.26, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 42% | Draw 24% | Stal Mielec 34%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 52%, Stal Mielec 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stal Mielec's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.17 PPG, Stal Mielec 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Stal Mielec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.