Jagiellonia 1-2 Raków Częstochowa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Raków Częstochowa travel to Chorten Arena to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jagiellonia's home record at Chorten Arena: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Raków Częstochowa have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Raków Częstochowa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Raków Częstochowa have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Jagiellonia carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Jagiellonia, 3 for Raków Częstochowa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Jagiellonia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jagiellonia in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Raków Częstochowa in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 61% versus Raków Częstochowa 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 54% | Raków Częstochowa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 1.311 / defence 1.037 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.874 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.184. Jagiellonia carry an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — their λ of 1.95 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 46 Jagiellonia games / 46 Raków Częstochowa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 1.75 | Draw 4.17 | Raków Częstochowa 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Jagiellonia (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jagiellonia at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 70% | Raków Częstochowa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Chorten Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Jagiellonia 1.95 / Raków Częstochowa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 1.311 / def 1.037 | Raków Częstochowa attack 0.874 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Chorten Arena.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Jagiellonia 1 - 2 Raków Częstochowa.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa being played?
The match is being played at Chorten Arena.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa part of?
Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 57% chance of winning, Raków Częstochowa a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
Record (7 meetings): Jagiellonia 2W | Draws 2 | Raków Częstochowa 3W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Raków Częstochowa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Raków Częstochowa's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Raków Częstochowa's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
57%
1.76
24%
4.25
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
3.02
1.07
Raków Częstochowa xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
3%
35.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.2 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.07 for Raków Częstochowa, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jagiellonia's recent record stands at 24W 13D 9L from 46 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Raków Częstochowa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 10L across 46 games — 1.87 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Raków Częstochowa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 1.85 PPG, Raków Częstochowa on 1.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jagiellonia have managed 14W 6D 3L from 23 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Raków Częstochowa's away record stands at 13W 6D 4L across 23 trips, a 1.96 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Raków Częstochowa are on 1.41 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Raków Częstochowa in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Blended
Raków Częstochowa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 24W 13D 9L in their last 46 games (1.85 PPG), while Raków Częstochowa have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Raków Częstochowa away?
Jagiellonia's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 2.09 PPG; Raków Częstochowa away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Raków Częstochowa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Raków Częstochowa in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Jagiellonia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Raków Częstochowa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Raków Częstochowa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jagiellonia
2
Draws
4
Raków Częstochowa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 4, Raków Częstochowa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Raków Częstochowa 2-5 Jagiellonia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Raków Częstochowa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 61%, Raków Częstochowa 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Jagiellonia) and 26% (Raków Częstochowa).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Raków Częstochowa in 56%; Raków Częstochowa in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Raków Częstochowa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Raków Częstochowa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 30% of Raków Częstochowa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Raków Częstochowa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 26% of Raków Częstochowa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Raków Częstochowa tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 96% of their recent matches, Raków Częstochowa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Raków Częstochowa defy the odds to beat Jagiellonia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Raków Częstochowa beat Jagiellonia 1-2 at Chorten Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.95 xG and Raków Częstochowa 1.07 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Jagiellonia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Raków Częstochowa outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 1.31 / defence 1.04 against Raków Częstochowa attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 57% | Draw 24% | Raków Częstochowa 20%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Raków Częstochowa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 54%, Raków Częstochowa 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Raków Częstochowa's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 1.85 PPG, Raków Częstochowa 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Raków Częstochowa win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.