Jagiellonia 2-0 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Piast Gliwice travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 July 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jagiellonia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jagiellonia haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Jagiellonia's home record at Stadion Miejski: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Piast Gliwice haven't played a Ekstraklasa game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Piast Gliwice — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Jagiellonia, 1 for Piast Gliwice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Piast Gliwice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jagiellonia 65% versus Piast Gliwice 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 56% | Piast Gliwice 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.16 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / defence 1.032 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.077 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.192. Data: 34 Jagiellonia games / 34 Piast Gliwice games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 32% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 40%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Piast Gliwice 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 80% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Jul 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 32% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Jagiellonia 1.16 / Piast Gliwice 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.980 / def 1.032 | Piast Gliwice attack 1.077 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 16 July 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Jagiellonia 2 - 0 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 32% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
Record (2 meetings): Jagiellonia 0W | Draws 1 | Piast Gliwice 1W.
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jagiellonia's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Piast Gliwice's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
32%
3.15
29%
3.49
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.49
1.32
Piast Gliwice xG
3.15
32%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
11.84
12%
8.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.32 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 9W 13D 12L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. Jagiellonia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Piast Gliwice's form line: 15W 9D 10L from 34 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. Piast Gliwice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Piast Gliwice are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jagiellonia.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jagiellonia have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L).
On the road, Piast Gliwice have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jagiellonia are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.32 scored and 1.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Pre-Season
Piast Gliwice
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 9W 13D 12L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 15W 9D 10L in their last 34 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jagiellonia at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Piast Gliwice's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jagiellonia at home: 1.35 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Jagiellonia or Piast Gliwice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jagiellonia have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Piast Gliwice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jagiellonia's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jagiellonia
6
Draws
2
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 2, Piast Gliwice have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Jagiellonia 1-2 Piast Gliwice.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jagiellonia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Piast Gliwice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 71%, Piast Gliwice 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jagiellonia) and 29% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice in 41%; Piast Gliwice in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Jagiellonia's recent matches and 35% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jagiellonia vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 29% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jagiellonia cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Piast Gliwice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Piast Gliwice 2-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 1, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.16 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.32 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jagiellonia beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Piast Gliwice landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.98 / defence 1.03 against Piast Gliwice attack 1.08 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 32% | Draw 29% | Piast Gliwice 40%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Jagiellonia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 56%, Piast Gliwice 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Piast Gliwice arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Jagiellonia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jagiellonia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.