Jagiellonia 2-1 Miedz Legnica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jagiellonia at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Miedz Legnica travel to Stadion Miejski to take on Jagiellonia. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 August 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Jagiellonia have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Jagiellonia have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Miedz Legnica — All Games: 0W 1D 3L from 4 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Miedz Legnica have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jagiellonia are in the better shape of the two on current Ekstraklasa data — 0.75 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.25). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jagiellonia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Miedz Legnica in 75% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Jagiellonia trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Miedz Legnica trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jagiellonia 50% and Miedz Legnica 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jagiellonia 50% | Miedz Legnica 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jagiellonia 1.64 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jagiellonia attack 0.963 / defence 1.092 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.836 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.220. Miedz Legnica bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Jagiellonia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Jagiellonia games / 4 Miedz Legnica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jagiellonia 50% | Draw 25% | Miedz Legnica 26%. Fair-value odds: Jagiellonia 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Miedz Legnica 3.85. Jagiellonia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jagiellonia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jagiellonia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Jagiellonia 60% | Miedz Legnica 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jagiellonia 50% | Draw 25% | Miedz Legnica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Jagiellonia 1.64 / Miedz Legnica 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Jagiellonia attack 0.963 / def 1.092 | Miedz Legnica attack 0.836 / def 1.340 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.220 • Poisson stance: Jagiellonia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Jagiellonia xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Miedz Legnica xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica kick off?
Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica?
Jagiellonia 2 - 1 Miedz Legnica.
Where is Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica part of?
Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica?
Our statistical model gives Jagiellonia a 50% chance of winning, Miedz Legnica a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jagiellonia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica will score (BTTS).
Will Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica in?
Jagiellonia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. Miedz Legnica (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jagiellonia's attack rating (0.96) and Miedz Legnica's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Miedz Legnica's attack versus Jagiellonia's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jagiellonia Win
50%
2.02
25%
4.07
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Jagiellonia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.11
Miedz Legnica xG
2.02
50%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.15
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Jagiellonia and 1.11 for Miedz Legnica, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 4 outings, Jagiellonia have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — L-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Jagiellonia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Miedz Legnica's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Miedz Legnica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jagiellonia on 0.25 PPG, Miedz Legnica on 0.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Jagiellonia are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Miedz Legnica are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Miedz Legnica in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jagiellonia
Early Season
Miedz Legnica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica in coming into this match?
Jagiellonia have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Miedz Legnica have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Jagiellonia
1
Draws
0
Miedz Legnica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica?
From 2 meetings on record, Jagiellonia have won 1, Miedz Legnica have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Miedz Legnica 1-1 Jagiellonia.
Who has won more matches between Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica?
Jagiellonia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Miedz Legnica see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jagiellonia 50%, Miedz Legnica 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Jagiellonia) and 50% (Miedz Legnica).
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jagiellonia home games / Miedz Legnica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jagiellonia play Miedz Legnica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jagiellonia's games and 75% of Miedz Legnica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jagiellonia vs Miedz Legnica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Jagiellonia's recent games and 50% of Miedz Legnica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jagiellonia and Miedz Legnica tend to score early?
Jagiellonia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Miedz Legnica in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jagiellonia edge out Miedz Legnica 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jagiellonia beat Miedz Legnica 2-1 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 6, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jagiellonia 1.64 xG and Miedz Legnica 1.11 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jagiellonia attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Miedz Legnica attack 0.84 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jagiellonia 50% | Draw 25% | Miedz Legnica 26%, with Jagiellonia to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jagiellonia 50%, Miedz Legnica 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jagiellonia's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Miedz Legnica's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jagiellonia 0.25 PPG, Miedz Legnica 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jagiellonia win broke the near-deadlock. Jagiellonia scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.