Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze host Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Zaglebie Lubin — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Zaglebie Lubin's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 1.60 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 5 for Zaglebie Lubin and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zaglebie Lubin in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Zaglebie Lubin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 47% | Zaglebie Lubin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.60 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.110 / defence 0.817 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.989 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.092. Data: 64 Gornik Zabrze games / 65 Zaglebie Lubin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 19%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Zaglebie Lubin 5.26. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Zaglebie Lubin 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.60 / Zaglebie Lubin 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.110 / def 0.817 | Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.989 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Zaglebie Lubin xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin kicked off at 19:15 on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Gornik Zabrze 0 - 2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 53% chance of winning, Zaglebie Lubin a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin?
Record (9 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 3W | Draws 1 | Zaglebie Lubin 5W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Zaglebie Lubin's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Zaglebie Lubin's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.59
19%
5.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.48
0.88
Zaglebie Lubin xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
5.19
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
4%
25.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.8 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.88 for Zaglebie Lubin, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 27W 15D 22L from 64 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Zaglebie Lubin, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 27L across 64 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.50 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 17W 5D 9L from 31 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zaglebie Lubin's away record stands at 9W 6D 16L across 31 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zaglebie Lubin are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Zaglebie Lubin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 27W 15D 22L in their last 64 games (1.50 PPG), while Zaglebie Lubin have gone 22W 15D 27L in their last 64 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Zaglebie Lubin away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.81 PPG; Zaglebie Lubin away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zaglebie Lubin go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Zaglebie Lubin specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
1
Draws
6
Zaglebie Lubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin?
From 10 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Zaglebie Lubin.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Zaglebie Lubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 48%, Zaglebie Lubin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Gornik Zabrze) and 45% (Zaglebie Lubin).
On the defensive side: Gornik Zabrze have failed to score in 29% of games; Zaglebie Lubin in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Zaglebie Lubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Zaglebie Lubin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 55% of Zaglebie Lubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Zaglebie Lubin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 45% of Zaglebie Lubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Zaglebie Lubin tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Zaglebie Lubin in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zaglebie Lubin cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zaglebie Lubin beat Gornik Zabrze 0-2 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 32, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.60 xG and Zaglebie Lubin 0.88 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Gornik Zabrze fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Zaglebie Lubin outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.11 / defence 0.82 against Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 28% | Zaglebie Lubin 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Zaglebie Lubin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 47%, Zaglebie Lubin 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.50 PPG, Zaglebie Lubin 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zaglebie Lubin win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.