Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gornik Zabrze face Wisla Plock.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wisla Plock travel to Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla to take on Gornik Zabrze in Ekstraklasa (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gornik Zabrze stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Gornik Zabrze have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wisla Plock — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wisla Plock's away record over their last 6 away games: 1W 4D 1L (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gornik Zabrze 2.00 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 83% of Wisla Plock's (from Gornik Zabrze's last 10 home games and Wisla Plock's last 6 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Gornik Zabrze, 1 for Wisla Plock and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Mar 2023, ended Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Wisla Plock — a Gornik Zabrze win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Gornik Zabrze in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 50% versus Wisla Plock 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gornik Zabrze 50% | Wisla Plock 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.72 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.221 / defence 0.939 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.201. Data: built from Gornik Zabrze's last 49 games and Wisla Plock's last 14.
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 54% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.85 | Draw 3.66 | Wisla Plock 5.36. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gornik Zabrze as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gornik Zabrze 60% (last 10 home games) | Wisla Plock 83% (last 6 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Friday 21 November 2025 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 54% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.72 / Wisla Plock 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.221 / def 0.939 | Wisla Plock attack 0.830 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock FAQs
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 21 November 2025 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock is a Ekstraklasa fixture (matchday 16) (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 54% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gornik Zabrze's attack rating (1.22) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wisla Plock's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gornik Zabrze's last 49 games and Wisla Plock's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.66
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.65
0.94
Wisla Plock xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
21%
4.72
3%
29.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.3 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.94 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Gornik Zabrze's recent record stands at 8W 2D 4L from 14 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Wisla Plock, meanwhile, have gone 7W 5D 2L across 14 games — 1.86 PPG, with D-W-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.86 PPG, Wisla Plock on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Gornik Zabrze have managed 5W 0D 1L from their last 6 home games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Gornik Zabrze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Wisla Plock's away record stands at 1W 4D 1L across their last 6 away games, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.36 scored and 0.71 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
Gornik Zabrze (Home) vs Wisla Plock (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock Form FAQs
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 games (1.86 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 7W 5D 2L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Wisla Plock away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 2.50 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Ekstraklasa. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Wisla Plock specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Gornik Zabrze have won 3, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Wisla Plock 0-1 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Gornik Zabrze at 67%, Wisla Plock at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Gornik Zabrze) and 17% (Wisla Plock).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 83% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 83% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 17% of Wisla Plock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 83% of Wisla Plock's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 16, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.72 xG and Wisla Plock 0.94 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.22 / defence 0.94 against Wisla Plock attack 0.83 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 54% | Draw 27% | Wisla Plock 19%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 50%, Wisla Plock 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.86 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.