Gornik Zabrze 1-1 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Lechia Gdansk (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gornik Zabrze face Lechia Gdansk.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lechia Gdansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lechia Gdansk — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Gornik Zabrze register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lechia Gdansk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gornik Zabrze, 2 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Lechia Gdansk winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lechia Gdansk in-play and half-time data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 67% versus Lechia Gdansk 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 65% | Lechia Gdansk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.50 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.057 / defence 1.232 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.031 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.230. Data: 52 Gornik Zabrze games / 52 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 35% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 38%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Lechia Gdansk 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lechia Gdansk at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lechia Gdansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gornik Zabrze 60% | Lechia Gdansk 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 35% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.50 / Lechia Gdansk 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.057 / def 1.232 | Lechia Gdansk attack 1.031 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Lechia Gdansk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Lechia Gdansk xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 1 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 35% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lechia Gdansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (3 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 0W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 2W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lechia Gdansk Win
35%
2.83
26%
3.78
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
3.06
1.56
Lechia Gdansk xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
22%
4.46
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 1.56 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 13D 21L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.48 PPG from 52 outings (22W 11D 19L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lechia Gdansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.29 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 1.00 points per game from 26 outings (7W 5D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.37 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
Lechia Gdansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 18W 13D 21L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 22W 11D 19L in their last 52 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.31 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when Lechia Gdansk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
4
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 5-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 58%, Lechia Gdansk 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Gornik Zabrze) and 62% (Lechia Gdansk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Lechia Gdansk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Gornik Zabrze's games and 54% of Lechia Gdansk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Gornik Zabrze's matches and 62% of Lechia Gdansk's.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 19, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.50 xG and Lechia Gdansk 1.56 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Lechia Gdansk attack 1.03 / defence 1.11, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 35% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 38%, with Lechia Gdansk to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 65%, Lechia Gdansk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.29 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.