Gornik Zabrze 1-3 Lechia Gdansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gornik Zabrze at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gornik Zabrze host Lechia Gdansk at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Gornik Zabrze — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gornik Zabrze's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Gornik Zabrze are significantly better at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lechia Gdansk stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Lechia Gdansk's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gornik Zabrze at 0.90 PPG versus Lechia Gdansk's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Gornik Zabrze, 0 for Lechia Gdansk and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Lechia Gdansk in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gornik Zabrze 68% versus Lechia Gdansk 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gornik Zabrze 61% | Lechia Gdansk 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gornik Zabrze 1.59 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.089 / defence 1.138 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.733 / defence 1.407. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.104. Lechia Gdansk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.407 — this is suppressing Gornik Zabrze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Gornik Zabrze games / 28 Lechia Gdansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 21%. Fair-value odds: Gornik Zabrze 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Lechia Gdansk 4.76. Gornik Zabrze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gornik Zabrze at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gornik Zabrze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Gornik Zabrze 70% | Lechia Gdansk 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Gornik Zabrze 1.59 / Lechia Gdansk 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Gornik Zabrze attack 1.089 / def 1.138 | Lechia Gdansk attack 0.733 / def 1.407 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Gornik Zabrze (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Gornik Zabrze xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Lechia Gdansk xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk kick off?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk kicked off at 16:30 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What was the final score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Gornik Zabrze 1 - 3 Lechia Gdansk.
Where is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla.
What competition is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk part of?
Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our statistical model gives Gornik Zabrze a 53% chance of winning, Lechia Gdansk a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gornik Zabrze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk will score (BTTS).
Will Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
Record (1 meetings): Gornik Zabrze 0W | Draws 1 | Lechia Gdansk 0W.
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk in?
Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lechia Gdansk (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gornik Zabrze's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Lechia Gdansk's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Lechia Gdansk's attack versus Gornik Zabrze's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gornik Zabrze Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.83
21%
4.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Gornik Zabrze xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Lechia Gdansk xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.69
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.78
4%
23.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze and 0.92 for Lechia Gdansk, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gornik Zabrze come into this having played 28 games, going 10W 7D 11L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Lechia Gdansk sit at 1.64 PPG from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gornik Zabrze on 1.32 PPG, Lechia Gdansk on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Gornik Zabrze's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Lechia Gdansk have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (3W 4D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lechia Gdansk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gornik Zabrze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gornik Zabrze are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lechia Gdansk are on 1.50 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: Lechia Gdansk in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gornik Zabrze
Current Season
Lechia Gdansk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk in coming into this match?
Gornik Zabrze have gone 10W 7D 11L in their last 28 games (1.32 PPG), while Lechia Gdansk have gone 13W 7D 8L in their last 28 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gornik Zabrze at home or Lechia Gdansk away?
Gornik Zabrze's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gornik Zabrze at home: 1.57 PPG; Lechia Gdansk away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Gornik Zabrze or Lechia Gdansk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gornik Zabrze have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Lechia Gdansk in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 5 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when Lechia Gdansk won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gornik Zabrze's record when hosting Lechia Gdansk specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Gornik Zabrze
2
Draws
4
Lechia Gdansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
From 8 meetings on record, Gornik Zabrze have won 2, Lechia Gdansk have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk last play each other?
They last met on 5 December 2025, when Lechia Gdansk 5-2 Gornik Zabrze.
Who has won more matches between Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk?
Lechia Gdansk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lechia Gdansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gornik Zabrze 57%, Lechia Gdansk 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gornik Zabrze) and 36% (Lechia Gdansk).
On the defensive side: Lechia Gdansk in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gornik Zabrze home games / Lechia Gdansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gornik Zabrze play Lechia Gdansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Gornik Zabrze's recent matches and 43% of Lechia Gdansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gornik Zabrze vs Lechia Gdansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Gornik Zabrze's recent games and 36% of Lechia Gdansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gornik Zabrze and Lechia Gdansk tend to score early?
Gornik Zabrze have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lechia Gdansk in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lechia Gdansk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Gornik Zabrze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lechia Gdansk beat Gornik Zabrze 1-3 at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Regular Season - 29, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gornik Zabrze 1.59 xG and Lechia Gdansk 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lechia Gdansk outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gornik Zabrze attack 1.09 / defence 1.14 against Lechia Gdansk attack 0.73 / defence 1.41, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gornik Zabrze 53% | Draw 26% | Lechia Gdansk 21%, with Gornik Zabrze to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Lechia Gdansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gornik Zabrze 61%, Lechia Gdansk 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Lechia Gdansk's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gornik Zabrze 1.32 PPG, Lechia Gdansk 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lechia Gdansk win broke the near-deadlock. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lechia Gdansk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.