Górnik Łęczna 0-4 Pogon Szczecin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Pogon Szczecin travel to Stadion Górnik to take on Górnik Łęczna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Górnik Łęczna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Górnik Łęczna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Górnik Łęczna's home record at Stadion Górnik: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pogon Szczecin — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pogon Szczecin away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pogon Szczecin are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Pogon Szczecin 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with Pogon Szczecin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Górnik Łęczna in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Pogon Szczecin in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 15% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Górnik Łęczna 62% versus Pogon Szczecin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Górnik Łęczna 46% | Pogon Szczecin 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Górnik Łęczna 0.83 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.870 / defence 1.176 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.940 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.031 / away 1.065. Data: 26 Górnik Łęczna games / 26 Pogon Szczecin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 25% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 43%. Fair-value odds: Górnik Łęczna 4.00 | Draw 3.12 | Pogon Szczecin 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Górnik Łęczna 60% | Pogon Szczecin 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Górnik • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Górnik Łęczna 25% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Górnik Łęczna 0.83 / Pogon Szczecin 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Górnik Łęczna attack 0.870 / def 1.176 | Pogon Szczecin attack 0.940 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.031 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Górnik Łęczna xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin kick off?
Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Stadion Górnik.
What was the final score in Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin?
Górnik Łęczna 0 - 4 Pogon Szczecin.
Where is Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Górnik.
What competition is Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin part of?
Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our statistical model gives Górnik Łęczna a 25% chance of winning, Pogon Szczecin a 43% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin will score (BTTS).
Will Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin?
Record (1 meetings): Górnik Łęczna 0W | Draws 0 | Pogon Szczecin 1W.
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin in?
Górnik Łęczna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Górnik Łęczna's attack at 0.87x the league average against Pogon Szczecin's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pogon Szczecin's attack versus Górnik Łęczna's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
25%
4.04
32%
3.08
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Górnik Łęczna xG
Total xG
2.01
1.18
Pogon Szczecin xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
19%
5.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Górnik Łęczna and 1.18 for Pogon Szczecin, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Górnik Łęczna have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 5W 9D 12L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Górnik Łęczna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pogon Szczecin's form line: 15W 8D 3L from 26 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pogon Szczecin are the form team by 1.12 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Górnik Łęczna.
Venue Form
On home soil, Górnik Łęczna have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (3W 5D 5L).
On the road, Pogon Szczecin have gone 5W 6D 2L from 13 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Pogon Szczecin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Górnik Łęczna are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Pogon Szczecin are on 1.88 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Górnik Łęczna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Górnik Łęczna
Blended
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin in coming into this match?
Górnik Łęczna have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 games (0.92 PPG), while Pogon Szczecin have gone 15W 8D 3L in their last 26 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Górnik Łęczna at home or Pogon Szczecin away?
Pogon Szczecin's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Górnik Łęczna at home: 1.08 PPG; Pogon Szczecin away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Górnik Łęczna or Pogon Szczecin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Górnik Łęczna have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Pogon Szczecin in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Górnik Łęczna
0
Draws
2
Pogon Szczecin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin?
From 2 meetings on record, Górnik Łęczna have won 0, Pogon Szczecin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Górnik Łęczna 0-4 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Górnik Łęczna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Pogon Szczecin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Górnik Łęczna 62%, Pogon Szczecin 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 46% for Górnik Łęczna and 15% for Pogon Szczecin.
On the defensive side: Pogon Szczecin in 38%; Górnik Łęczna have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Górnik Łęczna home games / Pogon Szczecin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Górnik Łęczna play Pogon Szczecin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Górnik Łęczna's recent matches and 46% of Pogon Szczecin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Górnik Łęczna vs Pogon Szczecin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Górnik Łęczna's recent games and 15% of Pogon Szczecin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Górnik Łęczna and Pogon Szczecin tend to score early?
Górnik Łęczna have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Pogon Szczecin in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Pogon Szczecin run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Górnik Łęczna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Górnik Łęczna 0-4 at Stadion Górnik, Regular Season - 27, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Górnik Łęczna 0.83 xG and Pogon Szczecin 1.18 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Górnik Łęczna fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Pogon Szczecin outscored their 1.18 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Górnik Łęczna attack 0.87 / defence 1.18 against Pogon Szczecin attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Górnik Łęczna 25% | Draw 32% | Pogon Szczecin 43%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Górnik Łęczna 46%, Pogon Szczecin 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Górnik Łęczna's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pogon Szczecin arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Górnik Łęczna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pogon Szczecin (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.