Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Slask Wroclaw – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cracovia Krakow take on Slask Wroclaw.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Slask Wroclaw at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Cracovia Krakow — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cracovia Krakow have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slask Wroclaw stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Slask Wroclaw have played only a handful of Ekstraklasa games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cracovia Krakow 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.24 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / defence 1.150 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.113 / away 1.212. Data: 1 Cracovia Krakow games / 1 Slask Wroclaw games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 35% | Slask Wroclaw 31%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | Slask Wroclaw 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 35% | Slask Wroclaw 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.24 / Slask Wroclaw 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 0.967 / def 1.150 | Slask Wroclaw attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.113 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Cracovia Krakow 1 - 2 Slask Wroclaw.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 34% chance of winning, Slask Wroclaw a 31% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Slask Wroclaw (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 0.97x the league average against Slask Wroclaw's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slask Wroclaw's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.97
35%
2.83
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.42
1.18
Slask Wroclaw xG
2.97
34%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.5 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.18 for Slask Wroclaw, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, Cracovia Krakow have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 0W 1D 0L record — D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slask Wroclaw's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Slask Wroclaw, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Slask Wroclaw are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Slask Wroclaw's attacking output running into Cracovia Krakow's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Cracovia Krakow have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Slask Wroclaw in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Early Season
Slask Wroclaw
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Slask Wroclaw have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 May 2024, when Slask Wroclaw won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Slask Wroclaw specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cracovia Krakow
3
Draws
4
Slask Wroclaw
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
From 9 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 2, Slask Wroclaw have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slask Wroclaw 0-0 Cracovia Krakow.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw?
Slask Wroclaw have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Slask Wroclaw away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Slask Wroclaw?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cracovia Krakow's games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Slask Wroclaw usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 100% of Slask Wroclaw's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Slask Wroclaw tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slask Wroclaw in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slask Wroclaw defy the odds to beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slask Wroclaw beat Cracovia Krakow 1-2 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 2, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.24 xG and Slask Wroclaw 1.18 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slask Wroclaw outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Slask Wroclaw attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 34% | Draw 35% | Slask Wroclaw 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Slask Wroclaw win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 0%, Slask Wroclaw 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.00 PPG, Slask Wroclaw 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slask Wroclaw win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slask Wroclaw conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.