Cracovia Krakow 0-1 Piast Gliwice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Piast Gliwice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cracovia Krakow host Piast Gliwice at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cracovia Krakow stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cracovia Krakow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cracovia Krakow's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Piast Gliwice have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ekstraklasa this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cracovia Krakow at 1.20 PPG versus Piast Gliwice's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cracovia Krakow, 0 for Piast Gliwice and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 4–2 with Cracovia Krakow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cracovia Krakow in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cracovia Krakow 56% versus Piast Gliwice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cracovia Krakow 48% | Piast Gliwice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.040 / defence 1.311 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.957 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.067 / away 1.049. Data: 25 Cracovia Krakow games / 25 Piast Gliwice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 29% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 41%. Fair-value odds: Cracovia Krakow 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Piast Gliwice 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Piast Gliwice at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cracovia Krakow 50% | Piast Gliwice 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cracovia Krakow 29% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cracovia Krakow 1.07 / Piast Gliwice 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cracovia Krakow attack 1.040 / def 1.311 | Piast Gliwice attack 0.957 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.067 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Piast Gliwice xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kick off?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Cracovia Krakow 0 - 1 Piast Gliwice.
Where is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice part of?
Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our statistical model gives Cracovia Krakow a 29% chance of winning, Piast Gliwice a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice will score (BTTS).
Will Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Record (1 meetings): Cracovia Krakow 1W | Draws 0 | Piast Gliwice 0W.
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in?
Cracovia Krakow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Piast Gliwice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cracovia Krakow's attack at 1.04x the league average against Piast Gliwice's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Piast Gliwice's attack versus Cracovia Krakow's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.28
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Cracovia Krakow xG
Total xG
2.38
1.31
Piast Gliwice xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.95
14%
7.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow and 1.31 for Piast Gliwice, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cracovia Krakow come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 8D 9L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D. The sample for Cracovia Krakow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Piast Gliwice sit at 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cracovia Krakow on 1.28 PPG, Piast Gliwice on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cracovia Krakow's home form reads 5W 4D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Piast Gliwice have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Piast Gliwice are on 1.28 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cracovia Krakow
Blended
Piast Gliwice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice in coming into this match?
Cracovia Krakow have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Piast Gliwice have gone 9W 7D 9L in their last 25 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cracovia Krakow at home or Piast Gliwice away?
Cracovia Krakow's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cracovia Krakow at home: 1.58 PPG; Piast Gliwice away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Cracovia Krakow's record when hosting Piast Gliwice specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cracovia Krakow
5
Draws
4
Piast Gliwice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
From 10 meetings on record, Cracovia Krakow have won 1, Piast Gliwice have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Cracovia Krakow 2-3 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice?
Piast Gliwice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cracovia Krakow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cracovia Krakow 58%, Piast Gliwice 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cracovia Krakow) and 25% (Piast Gliwice).
On the defensive side: Cracovia Krakow keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Piast Gliwice in 33%; Piast Gliwice in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cracovia Krakow home games / Piast Gliwice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cracovia Krakow play Piast Gliwice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Cracovia Krakow's recent matches and 33% of Piast Gliwice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cracovia Krakow vs Piast Gliwice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cracovia Krakow's recent games and 25% of Piast Gliwice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cracovia Krakow and Piast Gliwice tend to score early?
Cracovia Krakow have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Piast Gliwice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Cracovia Krakow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Cracovia Krakow 0-1 at Stadion Cracovii im. Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cracovia Krakow 1.07 xG and Piast Gliwice 1.31 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cracovia Krakow fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cracovia Krakow attack 1.04 / defence 1.31 against Piast Gliwice attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cracovia Krakow 29% | Draw 30% | Piast Gliwice 41%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cracovia Krakow 48%, Piast Gliwice 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cracovia Krakow 1.28 PPG, Piast Gliwice 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.