Viking vs Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Viking at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Viking vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Viking host Kristiansund BK at SR-Bank Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at SR-Bank Arena, Viking have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Viking) versus 1.40 (Kristiansund BK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Viking have won 1, Kristiansund BK 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 8.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2020, ended 5–3 with Viking winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 8.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Viking trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 87% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 60% and Kristiansund BK 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Kristiansund BK 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 1.84 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.098 / defence 0.988 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.043 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Viking games / 30 Kristiansund BK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 28%. Fair-value odds: Viking 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Kristiansund BK 3.57. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Viking offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Kristiansund BK 90% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 47% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Viking 1.84 / Kristiansund BK 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.098 / def 0.988 | Kristiansund BK attack 1.043 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Viking (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Kristiansund BK xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 11 April 2021 at SR-Bank Arena.
Where is Viking vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Viking vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 47% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Viking and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Record (1 meetings): Viking 1W | Draws 0 | Kristiansund BK 0W.
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in?
Viking (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.10x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Viking's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
47%
2.13
25%
4.01
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Viking xG
Total xG
3.23
1.39
Kristiansund BK xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
4%
22.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Viking and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Viking and 1.39 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Kristiansund BK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Viking come into this having played 30 games, going 12W 8D 10L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, Kristiansund BK sit at 1.60 PPG from 30 outings (12W 12D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Viking on 1.47 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Viking's home form reads 7W 4D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Kristiansund BK have taken 1.53 points per game from 15 outings (5W 8D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Viking are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Kristiansund BK in 83%.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 12W 12D 6L in their last 30 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Viking's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.67 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Viking and Kristiansund BK runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Viking's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Viking
0
Draws
1
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 9, Kristiansund BK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Kristiansund BK?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Viking at 67%, Kristiansund BK at 87%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Viking and 67% for Kristiansund BK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Kristiansund BK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Viking's games and 87% of Kristiansund BK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Viking's matches and 67% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Viking and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Viking's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking and Kristiansund BK finished level at 0-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 1.84 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.39 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Viking fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Kristiansund BK landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.10 / defence 0.99 against Kristiansund BK attack 1.04 / defence 0.93, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 47% | Draw 25% | Kristiansund BK 28%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Kristiansund BK 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.47 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Viking (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.