Viking 2-0 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Viking vs Brann encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SR-Bank Arena plays host to Viking versus Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Viking's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's home record at SR-Bank Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brann (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Brann have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Viking's 2.00 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Brann's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Viking have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Viking — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games).
Brann — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Viking 62% and Brann 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Viking 73% | Brann 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Viking 2.43 xG and Brann 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Viking attack 1.250 / defence 1.196 | Brann attack 0.971 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.369. Brann bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Viking's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Viking games / 26 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Viking 56% | Draw 19% | Brann 24%. Fair-value odds: Viking 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | Brann 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Viking (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.43 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Viking at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 4.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Viking 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Viking vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: SR-Bank Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Viking 56% | Draw 19% | Brann 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 73% | xG Viking 2.43 / Brann 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Viking attack 1.250 / def 1.196 | Brann attack 0.971 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Viking (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Viking xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Brann xG
73%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Viking vs Brann kick off?
Viking vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at SR-Bank Arena.
What was the final score in Viking vs Brann?
Viking 2 - 0 Brann.
Where is Viking vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at SR-Bank Arena.
What competition is Viking vs Brann part of?
Viking vs Brann is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Viking vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Viking a 56% chance of winning, Brann a 24% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Viking vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Viking and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Viking vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Viking and Brann in?
Viking (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Brann (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Viking's attack at 1.25x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (0.97x) against Viking's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.18
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Viking xG
Total xG
4.02
1.59
Brann xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.38
27%
BTTS No
3.67
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
9%
11.40
Win to Nil
11%
8.71
2%
46.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Viking vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Viking and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Viking and 1.59 for Brann, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Viking vs Brann?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Viking's recent record stands at 11W 6D 9L from 26 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 11L across 26 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Viking against 1.19 for Brann. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Viking have managed 6W 3D 4L from 13 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brann's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Viking are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Brann in 73%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Viking
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Viking and Brann in coming into this match?
Viking have gone 11W 6D 9L in their last 26 games (1.50 PPG), while Brann have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Viking at home or Brann away?
Viking's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Viking at home: 1.62 PPG; Brann away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 3-0 on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Viking have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Viking
2
Draws
1
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Viking and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Viking have won 7, Brann have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Viking and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Viking 3-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Viking and Brann?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Viking, 62% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Viking and 62% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Viking home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Viking play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Viking's games and 62% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Viking vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Viking's matches and 62% of Brann's.
Do Viking and Brann tend to score early?
Viking have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brann in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Brann 2-0 at SR-Bank Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Viking 2.43 xG and Brann 1.59 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Brann landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Viking attack 1.25 / defence 1.20 against Brann attack 0.97 / defence 1.40, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Viking 56% | Draw 19% | Brann 24%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Viking 73%, Brann 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Viking's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Brann's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Viking 1.50 PPG, Brann 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Viking (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.