Valerenga 3-0 Haugesund – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Valerenga at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valerenga vs Haugesund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Intility Arena plays host to Valerenga versus Haugesund in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 20 July 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valerenga have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at Intility Arena this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Haugesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Haugesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haugesund away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Valerenga's 1.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Haugesund's 0.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Valerenga 3W, Haugesund 2W, 3D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Valerenga — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Haugesund — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valerenga 57% versus Haugesund 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 36% | Haugesund 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.86 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 0.872 / defence 1.354 | Haugesund attack 0.751 / defence 1.389. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.296. Haugesund bring a strong defensive rating of 1.389 — this is suppressing Valerenga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Valerenga games / 44 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 50% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 27%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 2.00 | Draw 4.35 | Haugesund 3.70. Valerenga hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valerenga are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valerenga if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 83% | Haugesund 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Haugesund | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 50% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Valerenga 1.86 / Haugesund 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 0.872 / def 1.354 | Haugesund attack 0.751 / def 1.389 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Haugesund xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Haugesund kick off?
Valerenga vs Haugesund kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Valerenga 3 - 0 Haugesund.
Where is Valerenga vs Haugesund being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Haugesund part of?
Valerenga vs Haugesund is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 50% chance of winning, Haugesund a 27% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Valerenga and Haugesund will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Haugesund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Record (8 meetings): Valerenga 3W | Draws 3 | Haugesund 2W.
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in?
Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Haugesund (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Valerenga's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Haugesund's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Haugesund's attack (0.75x) against Valerenga's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 14/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
50%
1.99
23%
4.42
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.18
1.32
Haugesund xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
4%
23.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Haugesund expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.32 for Haugesund, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Haugesund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valerenga come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haugesund sit at 0.14 PPG from 14 outings (0W 2D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Haugesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.93 PPG clear of Haugesund — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Valerenga's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Haugesund have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valerenga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valerenga are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Haugesund are on 0.36 scored and 2.57 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Haugesund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Haugesund in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while Haugesund have gone 0W 2D 12L in their last 14 (0.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Haugesund away?
Valerenga's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 0.83 PPG; Haugesund away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Valerenga go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valerenga won 3-0 on 20 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valerenga have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Haugesund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valerenga
3
Draws
2
Haugesund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Haugesund?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 5, Haugesund have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Haugesund last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Haugesund 2-3 Valerenga.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Haugesund?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Haugesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Valerenga, 67% for Haugesund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Valerenga and 83% for Haugesund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haugesund in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Haugesund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Haugesund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Valerenga's games and 67% of Haugesund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Haugesund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Valerenga's matches and 83% of Haugesund's.
Do Valerenga and Haugesund tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Haugesund in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Valerenga run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Haugesund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Haugesund 3-0 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.86 xG and Haugesund 1.32 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 0.87 / defence 1.35 against Haugesund attack 0.75 / defence 1.39, drawn from 14/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 50% | Draw 23% | Haugesund 27%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 36%, Haugesund 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Haugesund's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.