Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Valerenga face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Valerenga welcome Bodo/Glimt to Intility Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Valerenga — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Intility Arena, Valerenga have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt away from home this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 away games — 2.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bodo/Glimt's 2.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Valerenga's 1.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bodo/Glimt have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Valerenga.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 2–7 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 4.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Valerenga trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Bodo/Glimt trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Valerenga 65% and Bodo/Glimt 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valerenga 58% | Bodo/Glimt 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valerenga 1.32 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valerenga attack 1.018 / defence 0.932 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / defence 0.753. League average goals — home 1.722 / away 1.412. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.753 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.515 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Valerenga games / 56 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valerenga 24% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 52%. Fair-value odds: Valerenga 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | Bodo/Glimt 1.92. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.31 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valerenga 70% | Bodo/Glimt 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Intility Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valerenga 24% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Valerenga 1.32 / Bodo/Glimt 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Valerenga attack 1.018 / def 0.932 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.515 / def 0.753 | league avg home 1.722 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Valerenga xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Bodo/Glimt xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Intility Arena.
What was the final score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Valerenga 3 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Intility Arena.
What competition is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Valerenga a 24% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (9 meetings): Valerenga 0W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 7W.
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in?
Valerenga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Valerenga's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, Bodo/Glimt's attack versus Valerenga's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
24%
4.11
24%
4.26
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Valerenga xG
Total xG
3.31
1.99
Bodo/Glimt xG
4.11
24%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
14%
7.34
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
3%
30.21
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Valerenga and 1.99 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Valerenga's recent record stands at 11W 4D 11L from 26 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt, meanwhile, have gone 19W 4D 3L across 26 games — 2.35 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bodo/Glimt by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valerenga heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Valerenga have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Valerenga are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bodo/Glimt's away record stands at 9W 3D 1L across 13 trips, a 2.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Valerenga are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.77 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valerenga
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Valerenga have gone 11W 4D 11L in their last 26 games (1.42 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 19W 4D 3L in their last 26 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valerenga at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Bodo/Glimt's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valerenga at home: 1.85 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Valerenga or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valerenga have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valerenga's record when hosting Bodo/Glimt specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Valerenga
2
Draws
7
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Valerenga have won 1, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Valerenga 3-1 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 77% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Valerenga at 69%, Bodo/Glimt at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Valerenga and 69% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valerenga home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valerenga play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Valerenga's games and 69% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valerenga vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Valerenga's matches and 69% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Valerenga and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Valerenga have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valerenga cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Bodo/Glimt 3-1 at Intility Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valerenga 1.32 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.99 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valerenga beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bodo/Glimt landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valerenga attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.51 / defence 0.75, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valerenga 24% | Draw 24% | Bodo/Glimt 52%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Valerenga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valerenga 58%, Bodo/Glimt 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valerenga's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Valerenga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Valerenga (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.