Stromsgodset 0-2 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 15 as Stromsgodset welcome Viking to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stromsgodset stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 3W 2D 2L at Marienlyst Stadion — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.57 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Stromsgodset are significantly better at Marienlyst Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Stromsgodset 1.00 PPG, Viking 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 64% and Viking 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stromsgodset 71% | Viking 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.97 xG and Viking 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.018 / defence 1.449 | Viking attack 0.665 / defence 1.426. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.365. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.426 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Stromsgodset games / 14 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 22% | Viking 25%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.89 | Draw 4.55 | Viking 4.00. Stromsgodset hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stromsgodset offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 71% | Viking 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 22% | Viking 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Stromsgodset 1.97 / Viking 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.018 / def 1.449 | Viking attack 0.665 / def 1.426 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Viking xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Viking kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 August 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Stromsgodset 0 - 2 Viking.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Viking part of?
Stromsgodset vs Viking is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 53% chance of winning, Viking a 25% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stromsgodset and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Viking (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
53%
1.90
22%
4.57
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.28
1.31
Viking xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.31 for Viking, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 5W 3D 6L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 3W 4D 7L from 14 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-D. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.29 PPG, Viking on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.57 PPG from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
On the road, Viking have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.36 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Viking in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 games (1.29 PPG), while Viking have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Viking away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.57 PPG; Viking away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Viking have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Aug 2024, when Viking won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Viking specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Viking have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 71%, Viking 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Stromsgodset and 71% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Stromsgodset's games and 43% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Stromsgodset's matches and 71% of Viking's.
Do Stromsgodset and Viking tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Viking in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stromsgodset 0-2 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.97 xG and Viking 1.31 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.02 / defence 1.45 against Viking attack 0.67 / defence 1.43, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 53% | Draw 22% | Viking 25%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 71%, Viking 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Viking's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.29 PPG, Viking 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Viking win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Viking (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.