Stromsgodset 0-4 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stabaek at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs Stabaek fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 30 as Stromsgodset welcome Stabaek to Marienlyst Stadion. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 22 December 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stromsgodset — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stromsgodset have posted 1W 4D 5L at Marienlyst Stadion — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Stabaek have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Stromsgodset) versus 1.10 (Stabaek). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stromsgodset, 1 for Stabaek and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2020, ended 0–2 with Stabaek winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stromsgodset in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 66% versus Stabaek 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 66% | Stabaek 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.45 xG and Stabaek 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.812 / defence 1.358 | Stabaek attack 0.790 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.377. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Stromsgodset's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Stromsgodset games / 29 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 28% | Stabaek 37%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Stabaek 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stabaek at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stabaek offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 60% | Stabaek 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Dec 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 28% | Stabaek 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Stromsgodset 1.45 / Stabaek 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.812 / def 1.358 | Stabaek attack 0.790 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 22 December 2020 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Stromsgodset 0 - 4 Stabaek.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek part of?
Stromsgodset vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 36% chance of winning, Stabaek a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Stromsgodset and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Record (1 meetings): Stromsgodset 0W | Draws 0 | Stabaek 1W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Stabaek (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stromsgodset's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Stabaek's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Stromsgodset's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
36%
2.82
28%
3.62
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
2.92
1.48
Stabaek xG
2.82
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
23%
4.38
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.48 for Stabaek, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Stabaek?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, Stromsgodset have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 7W 10D 12L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Stabaek's form line: 8W 12D 9L from 29 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stromsgodset on 1.07 PPG, Stabaek on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stromsgodset have posted 1.07 PPG from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 3W 6D 5L from 14 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.28 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Stabaek
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 7W 10D 12L in their last 29 games (1.07 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 8W 12D 9L in their last 29 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Stabaek away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.07 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 September 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Stromsgodset have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Dec 2020, when Stabaek won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stromsgodset's record when hosting Stabaek specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stromsgodset
1
Draws
2
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
From 6 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 3, Stabaek have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2023, when Stromsgodset 2-1 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Stabaek?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 64%, Stabaek 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Stromsgodset and 64% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 29% of games; Stabaek in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Stromsgodset's games and 64% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Stromsgodset's matches and 64% of Stabaek's.
Do Stromsgodset and Stabaek tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stabaek run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek beat Stromsgodset 0-4 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.45 xG and Stabaek 1.48 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Stromsgodset fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Stabaek outscored their 1.48 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.81 / defence 1.36 against Stabaek attack 0.79 / defence 1.31, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 36% | Draw 28% | Stabaek 37%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 66%, Stabaek 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.07 PPG, Stabaek 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stabaek win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stabaek (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.