Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sandefjord at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandefjord make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 November 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stromsgodset (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Stromsgodset at Marienlyst Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Sandefjord's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sandefjord's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Stromsgodset, 1.40 for Sandefjord — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Stromsgodset 2W, Sandefjord 4W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 2–3 with Sandefjord winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stromsgodset — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Sandefjord — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stromsgodset 53% versus Sandefjord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 57% | Sandefjord 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 1.43 xG and Sandefjord 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 0.778 / defence 1.251 | Sandefjord attack 1.023 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.757 / away 1.351. Stromsgodset's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.43 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Stromsgodset games / 58 Sandefjord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 44%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Sandefjord 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandefjord as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandefjord if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 50% | Sandefjord 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Stromsgodset 1.43 / Sandefjord 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 0.778 / def 1.251 | Sandefjord attack 1.023 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.757 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Sandefjord (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sandefjord xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kick off?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Stromsgodset 2 - 6 Sandefjord.
Where is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord part of?
Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 32% chance of winning, Sandefjord a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandefjord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Stromsgodset and Sandefjord will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Record (9 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 3 | Sandefjord 4W.
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Sandefjord (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 0.78x the league average against Sandefjord's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sandefjord's attack (1.02x) against Stromsgodset's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandefjord Win
32%
3.17
24%
4.14
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.16
1.73
Sandefjord xG
3.17
32%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
6%
17.88
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.73 for Sandefjord, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stromsgodset come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 10D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Sandefjord sit at 1.31 PPG from 58 outings (22W 10D 26L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.31 for Sandefjord. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stromsgodset's home form reads 10W 5D 14L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Sandefjord have taken 0.76 points per game from 29 outings (5W 7D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sandefjord's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stromsgodset come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sandefjord are on 1.52 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sandefjord in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Current Season
Sandefjord
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and Sandefjord in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 16W 10D 32L in their last 58 games (1.00 PPG), while Sandefjord have gone 22W 10D 26L in their last 58 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or Sandefjord away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.21 PPG; Sandefjord away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sandefjord have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandefjord won 0-5 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sandefjord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
5
Sandefjord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 2, Sandefjord have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and Sandefjord last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when Stromsgodset 2-6 Sandefjord.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and Sandefjord?
Sandefjord have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Sandefjord see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 52%, Sandefjord 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Stromsgodset) and 66% (Sandefjord). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stromsgodset have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / Sandefjord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play Sandefjord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Stromsgodset's games and 72% of Sandefjord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs Sandefjord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Stromsgodset's matches and 66% of Sandefjord's.
Do Stromsgodset and Sandefjord tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sandefjord in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandefjord run riot with a 2-6 hammering of Stromsgodset.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandefjord beat Stromsgodset 2-6 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 1.43 xG and Sandefjord 1.73 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-6 for 8 actual goals. Sandefjord outscored their 1.73 projection by 4.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Sandefjord attack 1.02 / defence 1.05, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 32% | Draw 24% | Sandefjord 44%, with Sandefjord to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 57%, Sandefjord 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sandefjord's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.00 PPG, Sandefjord 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandefjord win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandefjord (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.