Stromsgodset 3-0 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stromsgodset at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
ODD Ballklubb make the trip to Marienlyst Stadion to face Stromsgodset in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stromsgodset have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Marienlyst Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Stromsgodset, 1.70 for ODD Ballklubb — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Stromsgodset register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, ODD Ballklubb in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stromsgodset lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2020, ended 3–1 with Stromsgodset winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Stromsgodset goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
ODD Ballklubb goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stromsgodset 64% and ODD Ballklubb 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stromsgodset 64% | ODD Ballklubb 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stromsgodset 2.09 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stromsgodset attack 1.102 / defence 0.890 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.024 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.129. Data: 42 Stromsgodset games / 42 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16%. Fair-value odds: Stromsgodset 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | ODD Ballklubb 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Stromsgodset (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stromsgodset as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stromsgodset 70% | ODD Ballklubb 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Marienlyst Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Jul 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Stromsgodset 2.09 / ODD Ballklubb 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Stromsgodset attack 1.102 / def 0.890 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.024 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Stromsgodset (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Stromsgodset xG
Expected Goals
1.03
ODD Ballklubb xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 21 July 2021 at Marienlyst Stadion.
What was the final score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset 3 - 0 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Marienlyst Stadion.
What competition is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Stromsgodset a 60% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stromsgodset the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Stromsgodset 2W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in?
Stromsgodset (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Stromsgodset's attack at 1.10x the league average against ODD Ballklubb's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — ODD Ballklubb's attack (1.02x) against Stromsgodset's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stromsgodset Win
60%
1.67
25%
4.08
16%
6.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Stromsgodset xG
Total xG
3.12
1.03
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
6.35
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
2%
51.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Stromsgodset and 1.03 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stromsgodset's recent record stands at 11W 14D 17L from 42 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb, meanwhile, have gone 18W 8D 16L across 42 games — 1.48 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Stromsgodset against 1.48 for ODD Ballklubb. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Stromsgodset have managed 7W 8D 6L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
ODD Ballklubb's away record stands at 7W 4D 10L across 21 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stromsgodset are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.67 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stromsgodset have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stromsgodset
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Stromsgodset have gone 11W 14D 17L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 18W 8D 16L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stromsgodset at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Stromsgodset's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stromsgodset at home: 1.38 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 July 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 5-1 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stromsgodset have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Stromsgodset
3
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Stromsgodset have won 5, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 2-0 Stromsgodset.
Who has won more matches between Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb?
Stromsgodset have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stromsgodset 67%, ODD Ballklubb 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Stromsgodset) and 57% (ODD Ballklubb). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stromsgodset home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stromsgodset play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Stromsgodset's games and 52% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stromsgodset vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Stromsgodset's matches and 57% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Stromsgodset and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Stromsgodset have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Stromsgodset run riot with a 3-0 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stromsgodset beat ODD Ballklubb 3-0 at Marienlyst Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stromsgodset 2.09 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.03 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Stromsgodset beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stromsgodset attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stromsgodset 60% | Draw 25% | ODD Ballklubb 16%, with Stromsgodset to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stromsgodset 64%, ODD Ballklubb 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stromsgodset's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stromsgodset 1.12 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stromsgodset win broke the near-deadlock. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.