Start 0-0 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stabaek at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Start vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 10 as Start welcome Stabaek to Sparebanken Sør Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 July 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Start have gone 0W 5D 4L from 9 outings — a 0.56 PPG return. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 0.89 goals per game and conceding 1.78 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start at Sparebanken Sør Arena this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 home games — 0.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stabaek stand at 4W 3D 2L from 9 Eliteserien matches — 1.67 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Stabaek — 1.11 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.67 vs 0.56). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Start register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stabaek in 100% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Start in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Stabaek in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 56% versus Stabaek 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 44% | Stabaek 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 1.17 xG and Stabaek 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.787 / defence 1.376 | Stabaek attack 1.004 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.459. Start's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.17 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stabaek bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Start's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Start games / 9 Stabaek games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 22% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 57%. Fair-value odds: Start 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Stabaek 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Stabaek (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.17 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stabaek as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Start 60% | Stabaek 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 22% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Start 1.17 / Stabaek 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.787 / def 1.376 | Stabaek attack 1.004 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.459 • Poisson stance: Stabaek (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Start xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Stabaek xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Stabaek kick off?
Start vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 July 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Stabaek?
Start 0 - 0 Stabaek.
Where is Start vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Stabaek part of?
Start vs Stabaek is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Start a 22% chance of winning, Stabaek a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stabaek the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Start and Stabaek will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Stabaek?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and Stabaek in?
Start (all comps): 0W-5D-4L in 9 | 0.56 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 1.78 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Stabaek (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Start's attack at 0.79x the league average against Stabaek's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stabaek's attack versus Start's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stabaek Win
22%
4.62
22%
4.63
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Start xG
Total xG
3.19
2.02
Stabaek xG
4.62
22%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.51
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
3%
34.68
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 8.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Start and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Start and 2.02 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 9 outings, Start have picked up 0.56 PPG on a 0W 5D 4L record — L-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stabaek's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Stabaek are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Start.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Start have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
On the road, Stabaek have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stabaek come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Start are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Start have gone 0W 5D 4L in their last 9 games (0.56 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Stabaek away?
Stabaek's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 0.50 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Start or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Start have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Stabaek in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Start and Stabaek runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 September 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Start
1
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Stabaek?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 0, Stabaek have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Start and Stabaek last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2020, when Stabaek 2-0 Start.
Who has won more matches between Start and Stabaek?
Stabaek have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Start see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Start at 50%, Stabaek at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Start and 100% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Start have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Stabaek?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Start's games and 100% of Stabaek's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Stabaek usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Start's matches and 100% of Stabaek's.
Do Start and Stabaek tend to score early?
Start have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Stabaek in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Start's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Start and Stabaek drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 1.17 xG and Stabaek 2.02 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Start fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Stabaek landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.79 / defence 1.38 against Stabaek attack 1.00 / defence 1.28, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 22% | Draw 22% | Stabaek 57%, with Stabaek to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 44%, Stabaek 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stabaek's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Stabaek arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Start (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line. Stabaek (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.