Start 3-0 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjondalen at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Start vs Mjondalen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sparebanken Sør Arena plays host to Start versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 2 August 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Start have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 0W 5D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Start, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Start's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 2L across 6 games at Sparebanken Sør Arena this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Mjondalen's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjondalen's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Start, 0.70 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Start goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 46% of games.
Mjondalen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Start 54% versus Mjondalen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Start 46% | Mjondalen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Start 0.86 xG and Mjondalen 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Start attack 0.671 / defence 1.300 | Mjondalen attack 0.711 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.319. Start's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 Start games / 11 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Start 26% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 44%. Fair-value odds: Start 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Mjondalen 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mjondalen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjondalen if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Start 50% | Mjondalen 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Start vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Sparebanken Sør Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Aug 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Start 26% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Start 0.86 / Mjondalen 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Start attack 0.671 / def 1.300 | Mjondalen attack 0.711 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Mjondalen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Start xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Mjondalen xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Start vs Mjondalen kick off?
Start vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 2 August 2020 at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What was the final score in Start vs Mjondalen?
Start 3 - 0 Mjondalen.
Where is Start vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Sparebanken Sør Arena.
What competition is Start vs Mjondalen part of?
Start vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Start vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives Start a 26% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 44% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Mjondalen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Start vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Start and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will Start vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Mjondalen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Start and Mjondalen in?
Start (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Start's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Mjondalen's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.71x) against Start's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjondalen Win
26%
3.89
30%
3.32
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Start xG
Total xG
2.08
1.22
Mjondalen xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 15.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Start vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Start and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Start and 1.22 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Start vs Mjondalen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Start's recent record stands at 0W 6D 5L from 11 games, a 0.55 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Start is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 2W 2D 7L across 11 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.55 PPG for Start against 0.73 for Mjondalen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Start have managed 0W 4D 2L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 1W 2D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Start are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 0.91 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Start
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Start and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
Start have gone 0W 6D 5L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Start at home or Mjondalen away?
Mjondalen's away record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Start at home: 0.67 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 December 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Start
0
Draws
1
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Start and Mjondalen?
From 2 meetings on record, Start have won 1, Mjondalen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Start and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2020, when Mjondalen 1-0 Start.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Start see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mjondalen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Start 50%, Mjondalen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Start) and 50% (Mjondalen).
On the defensive side: Start keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Start have failed to score in 50% of games; Mjondalen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Start home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Start play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Start's games and 67% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Start vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Start's recent games and 50% of Mjondalen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Start run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mjondalen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Start beat Mjondalen 3-0 at Sparebanken Sør Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Start 0.86 xG and Mjondalen 1.22 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Start beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mjondalen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Start attack 0.67 / defence 1.30 against Mjondalen attack 0.71 / defence 1.03, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Start 26% | Draw 30% | Mjondalen 44%, with Mjondalen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Start win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Start 46%, Mjondalen 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Start's trading profile (11 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjondalen's trading profile (11 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Start 0.55 PPG, Mjondalen 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Start win broke the near-deadlock. Start (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Mjondalen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.