Stabaek 1-3 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Viking at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Viking encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nadderud Stadion plays host to Stabaek versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 11 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Stabaek (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Nadderud Stadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Viking have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.80 PPG clear of Stabaek in recent Eliteserien fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Stabaek have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Stabaek lead 0W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jun 2021, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Stabaek goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stabaek 57% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Stabaek 60% | Viking 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.69 xG and Viking 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.810 / defence 1.229 | Viking attack 1.137 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Data: 47 Stabaek games / 47 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Viking 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.69 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Viking as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 60% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 36% | Draw 26% | Viking 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 69% | xG Stabaek 1.69 / Viking 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.810 / def 1.229 | Viking attack 1.137 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Viking (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Viking xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Viking kick off?
Stabaek vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Stabaek 1 - 3 Viking.
Where is Stabaek vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Viking part of?
Stabaek vs Viking is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 36% chance of winning, Viking a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Stabaek and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Viking?
Record (3 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 3 | Viking 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Viking in?
Stabaek (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Viking (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.14x) against Stabaek's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
36%
2.76
26%
3.80
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Stabaek xG
Total xG
3.40
1.71
Viking xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
7%
15.30
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 9.6 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.71 for Viking, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Stabaek have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 12W 16D 19L record — W-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking's form line: 20W 12D 15L from 47 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Viking are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stabaek.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stabaek have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (7W 8D 8L).
On the road, Viking have gone 7W 6D 10L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stabaek are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.85 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 68%.
Last 47 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Viking in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 12W 16D 19L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Viking have gone 20W 12D 15L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Viking away?
Stabaek's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.26 PPG; Viking away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stabaek have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stabaek
3
Draws
3
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Viking?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 0, Viking have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2023, when Viking 1-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 44%, Viking 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 44% for Stabaek and 78% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stabaek have failed to score in 35% of games; Viking in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Viking?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stabaek's recent matches and 61% of Viking's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Stabaek's matches and 78% of Viking's.
Do Stabaek and Viking tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Viking in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Stabaek 1-3 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.69 xG and Viking 1.71 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Viking outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against Viking attack 1.14 / defence 1.13, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 36% | Draw 26% | Viking 37%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 60%, Viking 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.11. That form edge translated into the three points. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.