Stabaek 1-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valerenga at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stabaek vs Valerenga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 27 as Stabaek welcome Valerenga to Nadderud Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 December 2020 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stabaek have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Stabaek, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stabaek at Nadderud Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Valerenga — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Valerenga's 2.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Stabaek's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Stabaek, 0 for Valerenga and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jun 2020, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Stabaek in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Valerenga in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stabaek 46% versus Valerenga 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stabaek 50% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stabaek 1.05 xG and Valerenga 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stabaek attack 0.779 / defence 1.078 | Valerenga attack 0.814 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.328. Stabaek's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 Stabaek games / 26 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stabaek 32% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 37%. Fair-value odds: Stabaek 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Valerenga 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valerenga as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valerenga offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stabaek 40% | Valerenga 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stabaek vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Nadderud Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Dec 2020, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stabaek 32% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Stabaek 1.05 / Valerenga 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Stabaek attack 0.779 / def 1.078 | Valerenga attack 0.814 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: Valerenga (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Stabaek xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Valerenga xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stabaek vs Valerenga kick off?
Stabaek vs Valerenga kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 2 December 2020 at Nadderud Stadion.
What was the final score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Stabaek 1 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Stabaek vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Nadderud Stadion.
What competition is Stabaek vs Valerenga part of?
Stabaek vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Stabaek a 32% chance of winning, Valerenga a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valerenga the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Stabaek and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Stabaek vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Record (1 meetings): Stabaek 0W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 0W.
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in?
Stabaek (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Valerenga (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Stabaek's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Valerenga's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Stabaek's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valerenga Win
32%
3.14
31%
3.26
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Stabaek xG
Total xG
2.22
1.16
Valerenga xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 12.7 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stabaek and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Stabaek and 1.16 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Stabaek vs Valerenga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stabaek's recent record stands at 8W 10D 8L from 26 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Stabaek is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 5L across 26 games — 1.81 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Valerenga by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stabaek heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stabaek have managed 5W 4D 4L from 13 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valerenga's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.81 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Stabaek are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.65 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valerenga in 65%.
Last 26 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stabaek
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stabaek and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Stabaek have gone 8W 10D 8L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 13W 8D 5L in their last 26 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stabaek at home or Valerenga away?
Stabaek's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stabaek at home: 1.46 PPG; Valerenga away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Stabaek or Valerenga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stabaek have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Valerenga in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 November 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stabaek's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stabaek
3
Draws
2
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stabaek and Valerenga?
From 6 meetings on record, Stabaek have won 1, Valerenga have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stabaek and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 12 November 2023, when Valerenga 0-0 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Stabaek and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Valerenga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stabaek 31%, Valerenga 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Stabaek) and 46% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Stabaek keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Valerenga in 38%; Stabaek have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stabaek home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stabaek play Valerenga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Stabaek's recent matches and 54% of Valerenga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stabaek vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Stabaek's recent games and 46% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stabaek and Valerenga tend to score early?
Stabaek have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valerenga in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stabaek and Valerenga share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stabaek and Valerenga finished level at 1-1 at Nadderud Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stabaek 1.05 xG and Valerenga 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stabaek attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Valerenga attack 0.81 / defence 0.99, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stabaek 32% | Draw 31% | Valerenga 37%, with Valerenga to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stabaek 50%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stabaek's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Valerenga's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Valerenga arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.