Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Valerenga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 July 2022, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valerenga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Valerenga and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Valerenga trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 63% and Valerenga 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Valerenga 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 xG and Valerenga 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.296 / defence 1.082 | Valerenga attack 0.945 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.389. Sarpsborg 08 FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Valerenga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 59% | Draw 19% | Valerenga 22%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.69 | Draw 5.26 | Valerenga 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.37 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Jul 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 59% | Draw 19% | Valerenga 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 69% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 / Valerenga 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.296 / def 1.082 | Valerenga attack 0.945 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Valerenga xG
69%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 July 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Valerenga.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 59% chance of winning, Valerenga a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Record (3 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 1 | Valerenga 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Valerenga (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.30) and Valerenga's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valerenga's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
59%
1.71
19%
5.18
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.79
1.42
Valerenga xG
1.71
59%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.45
31%
BTTS No
3.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
2%
48.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.42 for Valerenga, a combined total of 3.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 17W 7D 19L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valerenga's form line: 15W 14D 14L from 43 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Valerenga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.35 PPG, Valerenga on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L).
On the road, Valerenga have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valerenga's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Valerenga are on 1.42 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Valerenga in 65%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Valerenga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 7D 19L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Valerenga have gone 15W 14D 14L in their last 43 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Valerenga away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.50 PPG; Valerenga away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Valerenga have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Valerenga won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Valerenga specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
4
Valerenga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Valerenga have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Valerenga 3-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Valerenga?
Valerenga have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Valerenga see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%, Valerenga 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 59% (Valerenga).
On the defensive side: Valerenga in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Valerenga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Valerenga?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 64% of Valerenga's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 59% of Valerenga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Valerenga defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valerenga beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 xG and Valerenga 1.42 xG, a combined 3.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.30 / defence 1.08 against Valerenga attack 0.94 / defence 1.15, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 59% | Draw 19% | Valerenga 22%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Valerenga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Valerenga 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Valerenga's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.35 PPG, Valerenga 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valerenga win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Valerenga (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.