Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Tromso away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.70 for Tromso — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Tromso in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 61% versus Tromso 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 57% | Tromso 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.78 xG and Tromso 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.033 / defence 0.928 | Tromso attack 0.899 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.230. Data: 58 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 28 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Tromso 5.26. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Tromso 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.78 / Tromso 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.033 / def 0.928 | Tromso attack 0.899 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Tromso xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 0 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 52% chance of winning, Tromso a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Tromso (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (1.03) and Tromso's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (0.90x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
52%
1.91
29%
3.47
19%
5.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.81
1.03
Tromso xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.32
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
3%
31.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.03 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 28 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 11W 6D 11L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Tromso's form line: 7W 11D 10L from 28 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.14 for Tromso. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.64 PPG from 14 outings (6W 5D 3L).
On the road, Tromso have gone 4W 5D 5L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.14 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 11W 6D 11L in their last 28 games (1.39 PPG), while Tromso have gone 7W 11D 10L in their last 28 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Tromso away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.64 PPG; Tromso away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Tromso have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 4-0 on 26 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
5
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 4, Tromso have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 Tromso.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 57%, Tromso 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 57% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Tromso in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 57% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent games and 57% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Tromso tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Tromso in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 0-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.78 xG and Tromso 1.03 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against Tromso attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Draw 29% | Tromso 19%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Tromso win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 57%, Tromso 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Tromso's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.39 PPG, Tromso 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tromso win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.