Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-1 Stabaek – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stabaek make the trip to Sarpsborg Stadion to face Sarpsborg 08 FF in Eliteserien (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stabaek's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Stabaek's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Sarpsborg 08 FF's favour (1.80 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stabaek in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Stabaek and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 8 Aug 2021, ended Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–3 Stabaek — a Stabaek win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stabaek — key trading statistics (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 49% versus Stabaek 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 51% | Stabaek 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Stabaek 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.955 / defence 0.923 | Stabaek attack 1.048 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.789 / away 1.208. Data: built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 55 games and Stabaek's last 55.
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 20%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.83 | Draw 3.95 | Stabaek 5.02. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 10 home games and Stabaek's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% (last 10 home games) | Stabaek 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 26 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 / Stabaek 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.955 / def 0.923 | Stabaek attack 1.048 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.789 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Stabaek xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek FAQs
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 4 - 1 Stabaek.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 26) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 55% chance of winning, Stabaek a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.95) and Stabaek's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stabaek's attack (1.05x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from Sarpsborg 08 FF's last 55 games and Stabaek's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
55%
1.83
25%
3.95
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.17
1.17
Stabaek xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
17%
5.87
3%
37.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.17 for Stabaek, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent record stands at 17W 13D 25L from 55 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Stabaek, meanwhile, have gone 14W 18D 23L across 55 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.09 for Stabaek. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have managed 11W 7D 9L from their last 27 home games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stabaek's away record stands at 6W 9D 12L across their last 27 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Stabaek are on 1.27 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
Sarpsborg 08 FF (Home) vs Stabaek (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Stabaek
Blended
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek Form FAQs
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Stabaek have gone 14W 18D 23L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Stabaek away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.48 PPG; Stabaek away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stabaek been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Stabaek in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek, the earliest from July 2020. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent in our data was on 29 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-0 Stabaek on 3 Oct 2020, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stabaek — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
1
Stabaek
Recent Meetings
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Stabaek have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 October 2023: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Stabaek.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stabaek are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 41%, Stabaek 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 74% for Stabaek. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Stabaek away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stabaek Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 67% of Stabaek's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 74% of Stabaek's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Stabaek matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 82% of Stabaek's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sarpsborg 08 FF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Stabaek.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Stabaek 4-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 xG and Stabaek 1.17 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sarpsborg 08 FF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.95 / defence 0.92 against Stabaek attack 1.05 / defence 1.17, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 55% | Draw 25% | Stabaek 20%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 51%, Stabaek 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Stabaek's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.16 PPG, Stabaek 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Stabaek (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.