Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Molde at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sarpsborg Stadion plays host to Sarpsborg 08 FF versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sarpsborg 08 FF have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 5W 3D 2L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Molde have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2.20 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sarpsborg 08 FF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% versus Molde 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52% | Molde 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.83 xG and Molde 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.823 / defence 0.948 | Molde attack 1.046 / defence 0.705. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.332. Molde's defence strength of 0.705 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 38 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 29% | Molde 48%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | Molde 2.08. Molde hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Molde are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Molde if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Molde 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 26 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 29% | Molde 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.83 / Molde 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.823 / def 0.948 | Molde attack 1.046 / def 0.705 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Molde (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Molde xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 26 May 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 2 Molde.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 23% chance of winning, Molde a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Molde the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
Record (1 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 0W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Molde (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 0.82x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.05x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 37/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Molde Win
23%
4.32
29%
3.42
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.15
1.32
Molde xG
4.32
23%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
6%
16.18
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 15.3 | 10.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.32 for Molde, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 19W 14D 27L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 38W 8D 14L from 60 games, 2.03 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L).
On the road, Molde have gone 15W 5D 10L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.45 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 19W 14D 27L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Molde have gone 38W 8D 14L in their last 60 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.47 PPG; Molde away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Molde in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-1 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
4
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Molde have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-1 Molde.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 43%, Molde 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 77% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sarpsborg 08 FF keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Sarpsborg 08 FF have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 67% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 77% of Molde's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Molde tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Molde edge out Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 0.83 xG and Molde 1.32 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.82 / defence 0.95 against Molde attack 1.05 / defence 0.70, drawn from 37/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 23% | Draw 29% | Molde 48%, with Molde to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 52%, Molde 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.