Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Ham-Kam have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Ham-Kam in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 3 for Ham-Kam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% and Ham-Kam 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Ham-Kam 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.82 xG and Ham-Kam 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.885 / defence 0.832 | Ham-Kam attack 0.987 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.224. Ham-Kam bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 43 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 20%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Ham-Kam 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Ham-Kam 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 53% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.82 / Ham-Kam 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.885 / def 0.832 | Ham-Kam attack 0.987 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 0 Ham-Kam.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 56% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Record (8 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W | Draws 1 | Ham-Kam 3W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack rating (0.89) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.99x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.23
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.82
1.00
Ham-Kam xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.23
24%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
16%
6.16
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
3%
30.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.9 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.00 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 43 games, going 16W 11D 16L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ham-Kam sit at 1.28 PPG from 43 outings (15W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Sarpsborg 08 FF against 1.28 for Ham-Kam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 8W 6D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Ham-Kam have taken 0.76 points per game from 21 outings (3W 7D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ham-Kam's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Ham-Kam in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 16W 11D 16L in their last 43 games (1.37 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 15W 10D 18L in their last 43 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Ham-Kam away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.43 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Sarpsborg 08 FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 1-7 on 16 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
From 9 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Ham-Kam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Ham-Kam 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 62% (Ham-Kam). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Ham-Kam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 52% of Ham-Kam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 62% of Ham-Kam's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ham-Kam in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sarpsborg 08 FF edge out Ham-Kam 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 1-0 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.82 xG and Ham-Kam 1.00 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sarpsborg 08 FF fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Ham-Kam landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.21, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 20%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Ham-Kam 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.37 PPG, Ham-Kam 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sarpsborg 08 FF win broke the near-deadlock. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.