Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-1 Brann – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 3W 1D 6L at Sarpsborg Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Sarpsborg Stadion this season.
Brann have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1.80 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Brann in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Brann and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Brann winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Sarpsborg 08 FF — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Brann — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 68% and Brann 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 73% | Brann 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 xG and Brann 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.004 / defence 1.319 | Brann attack 1.063 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.400. Data: 44 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 46 Brann games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 23% | Brann 46%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Brann 2.17. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Brann 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 23% | Brann 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 69% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 / Brann 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.004 / def 1.319 | Brann attack 1.063 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Brann (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Brann xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 - 1 Brann.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 31% chance of winning, Brann a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
Record (5 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 1W | Draws 2 | Brann 2W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Brann (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.00x the league average against Brann's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Brann's attack (1.06x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 44/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
31%
3.20
23%
4.32
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.57
1.96
Brann xG
3.20
31%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.27
Clean Sheet
14%
7.12
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
4%
22.79
9%
10.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.9 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.96 for Brann, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 17W 6D 21L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brann's form line: 26W 9D 9L from 44 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Brann are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sarpsborg 08 FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (10W 2D 9L).
On the road, Brann have gone 10W 5D 6L from 21 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Brann are on 1.73 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Brann
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 17W 6D 21L in their last 44 games (1.30 PPG), while Brann have gone 26W 9D 9L in their last 44 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Brann away?
Brann's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.52 PPG; Brann away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Brann been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Brann in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 1-4 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brann — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
3
Brann
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 3, Brann have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Brann 1-2 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 57% for Brann — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 52% for Brann. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Brann away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Brann?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 57% of Brann's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Brann usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 52% of Brann's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Brann in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Brann finished level at 1-1 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.61 xG and Brann 1.96 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.00 / defence 1.32 against Brann attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 31% | Draw 23% | Brann 46%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 73%, Brann 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Brann's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sarpsborg 08 FF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.