Rosenborg 3-2 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rosenborg at 1.30 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Rosenborg: 4 wins from 7 previous clashes against 1 for ODD Ballklubb, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Rosenborg and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (46 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (46 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 63% versus ODD Ballklubb 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 70% | ODD Ballklubb 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.22 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 0.852 / defence 1.067 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.945 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.301. Data: 46 Rosenborg games / 46 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 34% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 39%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | ODD Ballklubb 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, ODD Ballklubb are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Rosenborg 50% | ODD Ballklubb 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 34% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Rosenborg 1.22 / ODD Ballklubb 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 0.852 / def 1.067 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.945 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.31
ODD Ballklubb xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg 3 - 2 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 34% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (7 meetings): Rosenborg 4W | Draws 2 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.74
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
2.53
1.31
ODD Ballklubb xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
9%
10.79
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.31 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 21W 12D 13L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 19W 10D 17L from 46 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.63 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.12 PPG from 24 outings (16W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.26 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 21W 12D 13L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.12 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 54%, ODD Ballklubb 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 46% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 38%; ODD Ballklubb in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Rosenborg's recent matches and 42% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 46% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rosenborg defy the odds to beat ODD Ballklubb 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat ODD Ballklubb 3-2 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 1.22 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.31 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Rosenborg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 0.85 / defence 1.07 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 34% | Draw 27% | ODD Ballklubb 39%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Rosenborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 70%, ODD Ballklubb 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (46 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (46 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.63 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.