Rosenborg 1-3 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rosenborg at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rosenborg vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rosenborg and Lillestrom meet at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's home record at Lerkendal Stadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lillestrom's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.70 PPG lead over Lillestrom (2.00 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lillestrom in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Rosenborg lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jun 2021, ended 0–2 with Lillestrom winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 67% and Lillestrom 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 71% | Lillestrom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.63 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.287 / defence 1.029 | Lillestrom attack 1.132 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.798 / away 1.218. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 2.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Rosenborg games / 24 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 18%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Lillestrom 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.63 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 60% | Lillestrom 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 62% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 72% | xG Rosenborg 2.63 / Lillestrom 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.287 / def 1.029 | Lillestrom attack 1.132 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.798 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.63
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Lillestrom xG
72%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kick off?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
What was the final score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Rosenborg 1 - 3 Lillestrom.
Where is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom part of?
Rosenborg vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 62% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Rosenborg and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Record (1 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 0 | Lillestrom 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Lillestrom (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.63. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (1.13x) against Rosenborg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 54/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.5%), 1-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
62%
1.61
20%
4.88
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
6.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.63
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
4.05
1.42
Lillestrom xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.55
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
7%
13.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.67
1%
79.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 2.63 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.42 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs Lillestrom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 24 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 12W 6D 6L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lillestrom's form line: 11W 5D 8L from 24 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.58 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.17 PPG from 12 outings (8W 2D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.75 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lillestrom have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rosenborg are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Lillestrom in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 12W 6D 6L in their last 24 games (1.75 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 11W 5D 8L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or Lillestrom away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.17 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Rosenborg
1
Draws
5
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
From 9 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 3, Lillestrom have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rosenborg 2-0 Lillestrom.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and Lillestrom?
Lillestrom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Rosenborg, 83% for Lillestrom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Rosenborg and 75% for Lillestrom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play Lillestrom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Rosenborg's games and 83% of Lillestrom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rosenborg's matches and 75% of Lillestrom's.
Do Rosenborg and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lillestrom cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rosenborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lillestrom beat Rosenborg 1-3 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.63 xG and Lillestrom 1.42 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lillestrom outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.29 / defence 1.03 against Lillestrom attack 1.13 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 62% | Draw 20% | Lillestrom 18%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Lillestrom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 71%, Lillestrom 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Lillestrom's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.75 PPG, Lillestrom 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lillestrom win broke the near-deadlock. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lillestrom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.