Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 75%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lerkendal Stadion plays host to Rosenborg versus KFUM Oslo in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Sunday 13 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rosenborg (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
KFUM Oslo have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KFUM Oslo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KFUM Oslo's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Rosenborg. A 0.50 PPG lead over KFUM Oslo (1.60 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, KFUM Oslo have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Rosenborg's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2026, ended 0–2 with KFUM Oslo winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. KFUM Oslo have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
KFUM Oslo half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 46% versus KFUM Oslo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 52% | KFUM Oslo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.79 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.254 / defence 0.836 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.809 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.422. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.254 — their λ of 2.79 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KFUM Oslo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing Rosenborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Rosenborg games / 48 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 75% | Draw 15% | KFUM Oslo 10%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.33 | Draw 6.67 | KFUM Oslo 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Rosenborg (75%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
KFUM Oslo lead the H2H ledger, but Rosenborg carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Rosenborg as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 50% | KFUM Oslo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 75% | Draw 15% | KFUM Oslo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 58% | xG Rosenborg 2.79 / KFUM Oslo 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.254 / def 0.836 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.809 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.79
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
KFUM Oslo xG
58%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 75% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 10% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
Record (5 meetings): Rosenborg 0W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 4W.
What form are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rosenborg's attack at 1.25x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.81x) against Rosenborg's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 3-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
75%
1.33
15%
6.89
10%
9.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
3 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.79
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.75
0.96
KFUM Oslo xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.89
15%
Draw
9.79
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
6%
16.22
Win to Nil
29%
3.47
1%
158.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 2.79 expected goals for Rosenborg and 0.96 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 18W 12D 18L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KFUM Oslo's form line: 13W 15D 20L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for KFUM Oslo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Rosenborg against 1.12 for KFUM Oslo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 1.78 PPG from 23 outings (11W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 4W 8D 11L from 23 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rosenborg are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.29 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Blended
KFUM Oslo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Rosenborg's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 1.78 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
KFUM Oslo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KFUM Oslo won 4-1 on 3 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rosenborg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Rosenborg
1
Draws
4
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 0, KFUM Oslo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when KFUM Oslo 2-0 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo?
KFUM Oslo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 56%, KFUM Oslo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rosenborg) and 52% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; KFUM Oslo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play KFUM Oslo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Rosenborg's games and 56% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rosenborg's recent games and 52% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rosenborg and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.