Rosenborg 3-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rosenborg face Bodo/Glimt.

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Analysis

Bodo/Glimt make the trip to Lerkendal Stadion to face Rosenborg in Eliteserien (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 16:00 UK time.

Form

Rosenborg (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Rosenborg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bodo/Glimt away from home: 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Rosenborg, 2.00 for Bodo/Glimt — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) — Rosenborg have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Bodo/Glimt in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Apr 2022, ended Rosenborg 2–2 Bodo/Glimt — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 29% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 54%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rosenborg 68% and Bodo/Glimt 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rosenborg 75% | Bodo/Glimt 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rosenborg surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Bodo/Glimt have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 1.80 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.336 / defence 0.754 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.689 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.378. Rosenborg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.336 — their 1.80 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Bodo/Glimt bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rosenborg's projected output down. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack rating of 1.689, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Rosenborg have a tight defence (rating 0.754), which is pulling Bodo/Glimt's projected output down. Data: built from Rosenborg's last 57 games and Bodo/Glimt's last 57.

Result probabilities: Rosenborg 40% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 38%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 2.51 | Draw 4.53 | Bodo/Glimt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.76) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rosenborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.56 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rosenborg's last 10 home games and Bodo/Glimt's last 10 away games) averaging 3.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rosenborg 70% (last 10 home games) | Bodo/Glimt 60% (last 10 away games).

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