ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Tromso at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Form Guide
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eliteserien outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 4W 2D 4L at Skagerak Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tromso stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Tromso, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tromso's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 3L across 9 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
ODD Ballklubb are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, Tromso 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 3–0 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Tromso trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 53% versus Tromso 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 65% | Tromso 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.89 xG and Tromso 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.020 / defence 1.137 | Tromso attack 0.899 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.850 / away 1.226. Data: 47 ODD Ballklubb games / 17 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 26% | Tromso 23%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Tromso 4.35. ODD Ballklubb hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Tromso 44% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 26% | Tromso 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.89 / Tromso 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.020 / def 1.137 | Tromso attack 0.899 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.850 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Tromso xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso kicked off at 01:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 50% chance of winning, Tromso a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
Record (1 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 1W | Draws 0 | Tromso 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Tromso (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (1.02) and Tromso's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tromso's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.80
23%
4.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.14
1.25
Tromso xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.29
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
4%
28.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.25 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb come into this having played 17 games, going 6W 4D 7L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Tromso sit at 0.88 PPG from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Tromso is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ODD Ballklubb carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Tromso — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
ODD Ballklubb's home form reads 4W 2D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — ODD Ballklubb are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Tromso have taken 1.50 points per game from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Tromso travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.12 scored and 1.82 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Tromso
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Tromso in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 6W 4D 7L in their last 17 games (1.29 PPG), while Tromso have gone 3W 6D 8L in their last 17 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Tromso away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.75 PPG; Tromso away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Tromso won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Tromso specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
4
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Tromso?
From 8 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 4, Tromso have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Tromso.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 62%, Tromso 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (ODD Ballklubb) and 50% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Tromso?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 50% of Tromso's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 50% of Tromso's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Tromso tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Tromso in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at ODD Ballklubb's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 21, as ODD Ballklubb and Tromso drew 0-0 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.89 xG and Tromso 1.25 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. ODD Ballklubb fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Tromso landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.02 / defence 1.14 against Tromso attack 0.90 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 50% | Draw 26% | Tromso 23%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 65%, Tromso 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Tromso (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.