ODD Ballklubb 1-0 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates ODD Ballklubb at 36%, yet in-form Molde provide a compelling counter-argument — this ODD Ballklubb vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
ODD Ballklubb host Molde at Skagerak Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, ODD Ballklubb stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
ODD Ballklubb's home record at Skagerak Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Molde have recorded 10W 0D 0L from 10 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde away from home this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 away games — 2.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Molde — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 2.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. ODD Ballklubb register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Molde in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Molde have the better historical record — 6 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for ODD Ballklubb.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jun 2022, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 6 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Molde in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 62% versus Molde 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (ODD Ballklubb 62% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 1.33 xG and Molde 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.741 / defence 0.780 | Molde attack 1.323 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.760 / away 1.234. ODD Ballklubb's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.33 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Molde have an above-average attack strength of 1.323 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. ODD Ballklubb's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 ODD Ballklubb games / 40 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 31% | Molde 33%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Molde 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is ODD Ballklubb at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Molde (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on ODD Ballklubb offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 80% | Molde 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 31% | Molde 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG ODD Ballklubb 1.33 / Molde 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 0.741 / def 0.780 | Molde attack 1.323 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.760 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Molde xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
ODD Ballklubb 1 - 0 Molde.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Molde is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 36% chance of winning, Molde a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Record (6 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 0W | Draws 0 | Molde 6W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Molde (all comps): 10W-0D-0L in 10 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from ODD Ballklubb's attack rating (0.74) and Molde's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Molde's attack versus ODD Ballklubb's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
36%
2.81
31%
3.18
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
2.60
1.27
Molde xG
2.81
36%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
10.04
9%
11.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.27 for Molde, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 21W 15D 24L from 60 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 43W 9D 8L across 60 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Molde by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over ODD Ballklubb heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 13W 5D 12L from 30 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 20W 6D 4L across 30 trips, a 2.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.35 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Molde in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 21W 15D 24L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Molde have gone 43W 9D 8L in their last 60 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.47 PPG; Molde away: 2.20 PPG.
Have ODD Ballklubb or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
ODD Ballklubb have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Molde won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
ODD Ballklubb's record when hosting Molde specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
ODD Ballklubb
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-4 Molde.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — ODD Ballklubb at 73%, Molde at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for ODD Ballklubb and 57% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Molde in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 57% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 57% of Molde's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Molde tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Molde in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as ODD Ballklubb edge out Molde 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
ODD Ballklubb beat Molde 1-0 at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 1.33 xG and Molde 1.27 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Molde landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 0.74 / defence 0.78 against Molde attack 1.32 / defence 1.02, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 36% | Draw 31% | Molde 33%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 62%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with ODD Ballklubb winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Molde (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.