ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Skagerak Arena plays host to ODD Ballklubb versus Mjondalen in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 31 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
ODD Ballklubb's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, ODD Ballklubb have posted 4W 2D 4L at Skagerak Arena — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mjondalen (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjondalen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mjondalen have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for ODD Ballklubb, 0.60 for Mjondalen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — ODD Ballklubb have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Mjondalen in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours ODD Ballklubb, who have won 3 of the last 3 meetings against Mjondalen — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2021, ended 2–1 with ODD Ballklubb winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both ODD Ballklubb and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
ODD Ballklubb half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Mjondalen half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — ODD Ballklubb 57% versus Mjondalen 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (ODD Ballklubb 63% | Mjondalen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects ODD Ballklubb 2.57 xG and Mjondalen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.096 / defence 1.392 | Mjondalen attack 0.684 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.785 / away 1.233. Mjondalen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing ODD Ballklubb's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 ODD Ballklubb games / 54 Mjondalen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 14%. Fair-value odds: ODD Ballklubb 1.52 | Draw 5.00 | Mjondalen 7.14. The model has a clear lean to ODD Ballklubb (66%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.57 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates ODD Ballklubb as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.74 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: ODD Ballklubb 70% | Mjondalen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Skagerak Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: ODD Ballklubb 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 65% | xG ODD Ballklubb 2.57 / Mjondalen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: ODD Ballklubb attack 1.096 / def 1.392 | Mjondalen attack 0.684 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.785 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: ODD Ballklubb (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
ODD Ballklubb xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Mjondalen xG
65%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kick off?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Skagerak Arena.
What was the final score in ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
ODD Ballklubb 2 - 2 Mjondalen.
Where is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen being played?
The match is being played at Skagerak Arena.
What competition is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen part of?
ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our statistical model gives ODD Ballklubb a 66% chance of winning, Mjondalen a 14% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making ODD Ballklubb the favourite.
Will both teams score in ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen will score (BTTS).
Will ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
Record (3 meetings): ODD Ballklubb 3W | Draws 0 | Mjondalen 0W.
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in?
ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Mjondalen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates ODD Ballklubb's attack at 1.10x the league average against Mjondalen's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjondalen's attack (0.68x) against ODD Ballklubb's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.1%), 3-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
ODD Ballklubb Win
66%
1.52
20%
4.89
14%
7.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
ODD Ballklubb xG
Total xG
3.74
1.17
Mjondalen xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.89
20%
Draw
7.26
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
8%
13.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
1%
94.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for ODD Ballklubb and 1.17 for Mjondalen, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
ODD Ballklubb's recent record stands at 20W 11D 23L from 54 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjondalen, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 31L across 54 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Mjondalen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours ODD Ballklubb by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mjondalen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, ODD Ballklubb have managed 12W 5D 9L from 26 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjondalen's away record stands at 3W 6D 17L across 26 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, ODD Ballklubb come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
ODD Ballklubb are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Mjondalen are on 1.06 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
Mjondalen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen in coming into this match?
ODD Ballklubb have gone 20W 11D 23L in their last 54 games (1.31 PPG), while Mjondalen have gone 12W 11D 31L in their last 54 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — ODD Ballklubb at home or Mjondalen away?
ODD Ballklubb's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — ODD Ballklubb at home: 1.58 PPG; Mjondalen away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: ODD Ballklubb won 6-1 on 30 Aug 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, ODD Ballklubb have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mjondalen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
ODD Ballklubb
1
Draws
0
Mjondalen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
From 4 meetings on record, ODD Ballklubb have won 3, Mjondalen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2021, when ODD Ballklubb 2-2 Mjondalen.
Who has won more matches between ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen?
ODD Ballklubb have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Mjondalen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — ODD Ballklubb 69%, Mjondalen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (ODD Ballklubb) and 46% (Mjondalen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mjondalen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = ODD Ballklubb home games / Mjondalen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when ODD Ballklubb play Mjondalen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of ODD Ballklubb's games and 54% of Mjondalen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is ODD Ballklubb vs Mjondalen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of ODD Ballklubb's matches and 46% of Mjondalen's.
Do ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen tend to score early?
ODD Ballklubb have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Mjondalen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Skagerak Arena, Regular Season - 25, as ODD Ballklubb and Mjondalen drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting ODD Ballklubb 2.57 xG and Mjondalen 1.17 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjondalen outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of ODD Ballklubb attack 1.10 / defence 1.39 against Mjondalen attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it ODD Ballklubb 66% | Draw 20% | Mjondalen 14%, with ODD Ballklubb to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (ODD Ballklubb 63%, Mjondalen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Mjondalen's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, ODD Ballklubb arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Mjondalen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.